[ad_1]
The DEATH toll forecasts used by the government as the basis for another national shutdown are out of date and could be four times higher, experts have said.
A Downing Street press conference led by Boris Johnson on Saturday included data suggesting that England could be seeing as many as 4,000 deaths per day in early December.
⚠️ Read our live coronavirus blog for the latest news and updates
1
The projections were based on research conducted three weeks ago by the University of Cambridge, the Telegraph reports.
Experts have questioned why the work is still being used to make decisions when the university has published more recent research, whose estimated death figures are considerably lower.
They also note that the original research suggested that the daily death toll would now be around 1,000 days.
The average daily death in England in the last week was 260, about four times less.
The latest Cambridge research reportedly predicts 240 deaths a day for the coming week and around 500 in the second half of November.
The projections do not include figures for December, but are generally much lower than those used by the prime minister as the basis for a national shutdown.
Speaking to the Telegraph, Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Center for Evidence-based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was “deeply troubling” that outdated data was used in decision-making.
“Our job as scientists is to reflect the evidence and uncertainties and provide the latest estimates,” he said.
“I can’t understand why they have used this data, when there are much more up-to-date forecasts from Cambridge that they could have accessed, showing something very different.
“It is a rapidly changing situation, which is very different in different regions, and I am concerned that MPs who are about to go to a vote will not get the complete picture.”
Daily deaths in the UK remain well below their April peak of 1,166, but the country now records around 22,000 coronavirus cases per day, well above the levels seen in June, July and August.
Yesterday, the total number of cases diagnosed in Britain since the start of the pandemic exceeded one million.
In announcing the new measures on Saturday, the prime minister said they would be necessary to prevent a “medical and moral disaster” for the NHS.
Health chiefs reportedly warned that in a worst-case scenario, ice rinks could be used to store bodies from overwhelmed morgues.
“Scientists can be quite pessimistic about the immediate options we face,” Johnson said.
But they are unanimously optimistic about the future in the medium and long term.
“We will get through this. But we must act now to contain this fall surge.”
STRUGGLE OF WILLS
William secretly fought Covid in April because he did not want to alarm the nation.
THE AGONY OF MOM
First Briton to catch Covid dies at 26 after ‘months of hardship’
ON HOLD
Life won’t be normal until at least next summer even with the vaccine, scientist warns
BABY BOON
Young children are exempt from the lockdown rule for meeting only one friend outside
FARE RAGE
Uber passenger fury after being charged £ 111 for a TWO MILE ride
they will never learn
Panic Shoppers Bare Shelves Again As Second Closing Looms
The new rules, which go into effect on Thursday, prohibit people in England from gathering socially indoors with friends or family unless they are part of the same household or bubble of support.
The closure of all non-essential retail stores will also be signaled, although pubs and restaurants will be allowed to continue with takeout and home delivery.
[ad_2]
