[ad_1]
After almost four months of being under some form of confinement restriction, on Thursday people in Greater Manchester will learn what life will be like in the run-up to Christmas.
The ministers will then decide, using the latest available data, at what level we will be placed after the national blockade ends on December 2.
In a conurbation where most communities have been under a variety of different measures nonstop since July 31, some can expect significant loosening of the rules, especially after what will have been a month of national shutdown.
Sadly, that seems unlikely, although in theory the rules may vary by county.
Because while the government has said that gyms, places of worship and non-essential shops will reopen on December 3, it’s safe to say that Greater Manchester will go straight to either tier, which the Prime Minister announced this afternoon will be Harder than before, which means pubs. would have to close unless they serve large meals, or top tier three.
(Image: PA)
The new and stricter rules now planned for level three, described as now effectively ‘level four’ by some, mean that all hospitality would have to close, including restaurants, except take-out. That represents a key tightening of the rules that we experienced here before the national shutdown.
Which of the two tiers we are positioned at depends on how the data looks on Thursday, with the government looking at several key measures, the most crucial of which are infection rates, direction of travel (how fast those increases or decreases). rates) and the situation in hospitals, particularly their bed capacity.
Video not available
For Greater Manchester there are some positives that can be gleaned from the charts of the last few weeks.
Infection rates in each of our ten counties began to drop in unison during the national shutdown, the first time it had happened since early summer.
Every council area in the conurbation has seen case rates decline by at least a fifth over the past week, according to MEN’s analysis of yesterday’s figures, with some falling by more than a third in that time.
Trafford’s has seen a particularly substantial reduction, having almost halved since October 23. But even other than that, the numbers have been falling on the piece for almost a fortnight.
However, they are still high.
Even in Trafford, which has the lowest rate of the ten counties, more than 200 people per 100,000 still test positive for the virus. For context, when restrictions were imposed on Greater Manchester in late July, the Trafford rate was 42.7.
Oldham had 54.3 cases per 100,000 when the July measures were introduced.
And while their rates have dropped substantially from more than 750 cases per 100,000 in the past three weeks, the rate still stands at 442, almost 10 times higher than in July.
So cases are falling and falling, which will be positive for Greater Manchester when ministers are weighing the data, but it is not low.
Rochdale and Oldham are ranked 11th and 12th, respectively, of the UK’s more than 200 top-level local authority areas, for example.
Only Trafford is below, only, the national average for England.
What about pressures on hospitals, the great underlying concern of ministers?
The outlook may now be “ stabilizing, ” according to Andy Burnham in his regular press conference last Wednesday, after several weeks of sharply mounting pressures that have seen the system pass its April peak and cause non-urgent work. and routine is canceled across the board in to free up beds.
Figures from last week showed a slight drop, 6 percent, in the number of new coronavirus patients being treated within the hospital system here.
But there is no doubt that it remains under great pressure. The number of Covid patients in intensive care and high dependency beds had risen by 24 percent last week and reports of extremely long waits in emergency departments continue to abound.
Summarizing the scenario that ministers will consider later this week, a senior figure said: “They are taking into account the trajectory of infection rates, which is going down.
“But our NHS capacity is still weak.”
There is also a second unknown: the footprint in which the newly reinforced levels will be applied.
Summer saw considerable dispute, both internally among Greater Manchester leaders, between MPs and councils, and with ministers, over the ‘fool’ of changing the measures in different districts.
It is understood that the government may again choose to apply the latest measures by local authority area, which means that there is a theoretical possibility that some parts of Greater Manchester will end up at level two, while others will enter level three.
This afternoon in the House of Commons, Matt Hancock was asked if ‘variations across large counties and regions would be considered’ in regards to the Covid image.
(Image: PA)
“When it comes to the geography of applying the levels, of course, we have to look at the areas in which people live and travel, but as before, where it is clear … there is a genuine difference that is not represented by administrative limits, then we will analyze it and make a decision on that basis, ”he said.
“For example, in previous levels we even divided a municipality in two in one example. However, you also need to look at where people live and travel to make these decisions correctly. “
That could leave the door open for variations by area of local authority. However, with that said, Greater Manchester hospitals function as a system, sharing patients based on where pressures exist, and infection rates remain high in all districts.
So once again, Greater Manchester awaits a decision on Thursday on Covid restrictions that will affect millions of lives and livelihoods. But even if we go to level two, we will still see that any pub that does not serve a ‘substantial meal’ keeps its doors closed.
And one senior health official echoes many others in the system when they firmly predict, “We will be at level three.”
[ad_2]
