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Although core forecasts remain unchanged, forecasting 750 deaths per day and 4,290 hospital admissions for Dec. 8, the upper end of the range has been revised lower. Instead of 1,500 deaths, it suggests a higher figure of 1,010, while the upper range of daily hospital admissions falls from around 9,000 to 6,190.
The changes significantly alter the appearance of the charts, meaning that the shading no longer suggests that deaths in the weeks to December 8 could dwarf those of the first wave.
Professor Heneghan, director of the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, expressed concern about the “systematic” use of incorrect data to drive the country into lockdown, saying: “It really worries me that, on matters that are so important, we find that the data is absolutely riddled with errors.
“I don’t know if the data is being processed quickly or if what we are seeing is a bias that is being introduced, but what we are seeing seems systematic. All errors are consistently in one direction, so you have to ask if done on purpose. to adapt to the policies, such as the blockade, that they want to impose. “
He urged ministers to be more transparent, saying that data reviews should not be “removed” and added: “We are in an era where public compliance is essential to public health, and in due course we will need that people get vaccinated. ” . That requires people to trust the government. “
The SPI-M screenings, dated October 28, were a central part of the weekend’s presentation, and Sir Patrick and Professor Whitty have since emphasized that they were more reliable than long-term scenarios.
SPI-M includes Professor Jonathan Van Tam, Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Professor Neil Ferguson, Imperial College London, and Professor John Edmunds, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, all of whom have advocated for national action (see Boris Johnson giving an update after the start of the national lockdown in the video below).
