The coronavirus pandemic ‘will last TWO YEARS, until 70% of the world population is infected’ – The Sun

The coronavirus pandemic could last two more years, top experts warn.

A group of infectious disease scientists in the US USA They have predicted that the deadly virus is likely to spread for 18 to 24 months, until 60 to 70 percent of the population has been infected.

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And, in writing a new report, they warned nations to prepare for the worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter.

It is presented as the number of coronavirus cases worldwide beyond the three million mark, with a death toll of more than 234,000.

A team of infectious disease researchers led by the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) used data on past pandemics and published reports on Covid-19’s medical details to make their prediction.

They wrote: “The duration of the pandemic will probably be 18 to 24 months, as collective immunity develops gradually in the human population.”

The scientists added that this is because Covid-19 is a new disease and no one has immunity.

This will not stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people.

Professor Mike Osterholm

And Professor Mike Osterholm, who heads CIDRAP, told CNN: “This will not stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people.”

“The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology.”

The team also noted that pandemic infections don’t tend to decrease in the summer like seasonal flu does.

“Due to a longer incubation period, a more asymptomatic spread, and a higher R0 (reproduction rate), Covid-19 appears to spread more easily than influenza,” they wrote in the report.

R0, or R nothing, refers to the average number of people to whom an infected person can transmit the coronavirus.

“A higher R0 means that more people will need to become infected and become immune before the pandemic can end,” they added.

“Based on the latest flu pandemics, this outbreak is likely to last 18-24 months.”

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They said government officials should stop telling people that the pandemic may be ending and instead prepare citizens for a long journey.

They revealed that there are three possible scenarios for the future:

Scenario one: The first wave of Covid-19 in the spring of 2020 is followed by a series of smaller repetitive waves that occur during the summer and then steadily over a period of one to two years, gradually decreasing sometime in 2021.

Scenario two: The first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter and one or more smaller waves in 2021.

“This pattern will require the reinstatement of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to reduce the spread of infection and prevent health systems from being overwhelmed,” they wrote.

“This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic.”

Scenario three: An ongoing “slow burn” of transmission.

Government officials must develop concrete plans, including triggers to reinstate mitigation measures

CIDRAP researchers

They said: “This third scenario probably would not require the reinstatement of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.”

In particular, scientists recommend that governments plan for the worst-case scenario, which is scenario two.

“Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers to reinstate mitigation measures, to deal with spikes in disease when they occur,” they advised.

Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who is also a senior expert on pandemics, participated in the report and admitted that he was surprised by the decisions that many territories are making to lift restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the disease. virus.

“I think it is an experiment. It is an experiment that is likely to cost lives, especially in places that do it without careful controls to try to figure out when to try to slow things down again,” Lipsitch said.

In addition to this, he said that some states in the US USA They are choosing to lift the restrictions when they have more new infections than when they decided to impose the restrictions.

He added: “It is difficult even to understand the reason.”

The report says that a vaccine could help, but not quickly.

They wrote: “The course of the pandemic could also be influenced by a vaccine; however, a vaccine is not likely to be available until at least sometime in 2021.

“And we don’t know what kinds of challenges might arise during vaccine development that could delay the schedule.”

Vaccine awaits

British scientists are currently working on a coronavirus vaccine and have said they will know in early summer if it works.

Human trials of the Oxford University prick began last week.

Now, the team has reached an agreement with the pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca for a large deployment of the vaccine at cost price.

The company has committed to producing 100 million doses this year if the tests turn out positive.

And he has promised to put the UK at the forefront of gaining early access to millions of coups.

Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, said that several hundred volunteers had already received the experimental injection.

He said the team should receive a “signal about whether it’s working in mid-June.”

A successful vaccine is crucial to end restrictions and to get life back to normal.

The Oxford project’s principal investigator, Professor Sarah Gilbert, previously said she is 80 percent sure it will succeed.

First patients are injected with the coronavirus vaccine in a UK trial