[ad_1]
An epidemiologist warned that overseas holidays in July and August present “a real risk” of bringing Covid variants back to the UK.
Dr Mike Tildesley, associate professor of infectious disease modeling at the University of Warwick, told BBC Radio 4 Today program: “We are running a real risk if we start to have a lot of people traveling abroad in July, for example in August, due to the possibility of bringing more of these new variants to the country.”
He said he is particularly concerned about variants with the E484K mutation: “That is the South African strain that we are concerned about, which we think makes vaccines less effective.
“That’s a bit more prevalent in Europe, so I think it’s a real concern: if we start to see more of those cases come in, then they start to avoid the vaccine and that could cause us more problems.
“A few weeks ago I was saying that I was pretty sure a national Christmas season in the UK was very possible given the pace of our vaccination campaign.
“But I was much more skeptical about what was going to happen internationally. My position on this has not changed much.
“International travel this summer, for the average tourist, I unfortunately think is extremely unlikely.”
Dr. Tildesley is a member of the Pandemic Influenza Scientific Modeling Group (SPI-M) of the Government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage). He said there are risks even in cases where travel companies insist that passengers be vaccinated, as some cruise lines have done, or tested at airports.
“If we remove the new variants that vaccines prevent from the equation, then there is a possibility that people will be tested or vaccinated, then in theory they should be quite safe because of the levels of protection.
“The most problem is the potential to bring new variants to the country.
“What I think is really dangerous is if we jeopardize our vaccination campaign by having these variants where the vaccines don’t work as effectively and spread more quickly.
“In the long term, it is very likely that variants will emerge in the UK where vaccines do not work as effectively, and we may need to think about future booster vaccination campaigns. But the more we can get on with it, the better. “
Paul Charles, CEO of travel consultancy The PC Agency, which has campaigned to open international travel, said: “Scientists seem to want to keep our borders closed for years, to avoid possible variants, which they have not yet done. have clear evidence on.
“The prime minister has to put in place effective tests at the airport on arrival, to allow infections to stay out of the UK and the economy to function.
“It will be a summer of sun, sand, sea and hyssop, but consumers are prepared for that.”
Currently, all vacations abroad are illegal.
The government’s Global Travel Taskforce is due to report April 12 on proposals to restart international leisure travel. The earliest date for UK residents to go abroad on holiday is May 17.
