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If there is any hope, it is the vaccine. Testing, tracking, masking, distancing, crashing, and levels have failed to halt the march of the virus. It is now clear that without a vaccine, the government would never allow normalcy to return. We would be in and out of controls, rules, regulations and restrictions until the kingdom comes.
The skeptics among us have hopefully suggested that the low death rate from Covid and the high average age of the victims (82.4 years, greater than the average life expectancy) do not require such draconian action. But we have been patronized and ignored.
Thank you for pointing that out and for suggesting that we should be allowed to move on with our lives while taking some elementary precautions, say Sage ministers and boffins, but that’s not what we’re going to do. If we did, people would die and we would be to blame. If that means others will die from another cause, such as an undiagnosed cancer or a postponed operation, it is sad but inevitable. At least they won’t die from Covid, except 65,000 have already. And if that means wrecking the economy, with 800,000 jobs lost since March, so be it.
The government’s declared policy has been clear for some time: rigid controls will continue to be imposed on social interactions to suppress the virus until a vaccine appears. That was always a big gamble, as it normally takes 10 years to develop a vaccine, and often it never happens.
Watching the excellent BBC Panorama documentary on Monday night on the development of the Oxford / AstraZeneca version of the jab was to remind yourself of how tactile this whole exercise has been. At one point, a scientist observes that most of the time, vaccines don’t work. They have been searching for years in vain for effective injections for HIV and malaria, which kill far more people around the world than the coronavirus, many of them children.
Indeed, it should have been cause for celebration to discover that children and young people are almost completely resistant to the worst ravages of Covid, and that only those at the end of a long life are particularly vulnerable.
For a pandemic, a 99.5 percent population survival rate is pretty good, to say the least, unless you are a 0.5 percent survival rate, of course. The fatality rate is higher than seasonal flu, but not much worse than during bad flu years for which drastic shutdowns of society were never contemplated.
Yet here we are after nine months of measures of varying degrees of severity, almost getting back to square one with half the population under the most severe restrictions. It is true that schools remain open, despite the fact that most infections are transmitted by mostly asymptomatic children. With just a few days left, why not let them have an early holiday instead of threatening them with legal action?
Stores are also allowed to stay open, which seems perverse when they are more likely to be crammed with Christmas bargain hunters than a restaurant or pub that has spent a great deal of money making itself ‘Covid safe’. A Sage scientist said he was convinced London needed to be on Level 3 when he saw the crowd at the Westfield complex in Stratford. However, it can remain open while the National Gallery must close. The hospitality sector and the arts have sacrificed on the altar of “something has to be done and this is something.”
We are still promised freedom to reunite with our families during the festive period, albeit only with dark warnings ringing in our ears: don’t hug, keep windows open, wash your gifts, eat outside if you can, in December! If they could, ministers would now stop these meetings as well, but Boris Johnson does not want to be the first leader since Cromwell to abolish Christmas. However, with the pressure mounting for a change of mind, he could still find himself alongside Old Noll as the biggest killjoy ever.
All of this has been necessary, we are told, because of the danger that hospitals are filling up again, even though the NHS has had months to prepare for a projected rise in the virus during the winter. Also, the goal of the closures and tiers was to allow for more freedom at Christmas, and if proof was required that none of the measures have worked, here it is.
So thank goodness for scientists who have developed a vaccine in record time, otherwise we would have gone under. The documentary Panorama showed what a remarkable achievement this has been, along with the advancements of Pfizer and Moderna. The Oxford / AstraZeneca version would be the real game changer as it is cheaper and easier to distribute; And although its efficacy in older people is still being evaluated, none of the trials became seriously ill from Covid.
Data from the ONS this week showed that mortality will drop by more than 80 percent once everyone over 70 is vaccinated – that’s around 10 million people. If the Oxford vaccine has so far been shown to be most effective among those under 55, then it can be given to those in front-line positions such as nurses, doctors and teachers, while the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are given to the elderly .
This is where our entire national effort should be directed, despite the scaremongering surrounding the sudden emergence of a variant of the virus. These are always expected and happen every year with the flu.
Instead of throwing good money after bad in randomized mass tests, which will cost billions and get us nowhere, the massive commitment of funds and manpower should be diverted to the vaccine. Furthermore, once those most at risk have been struck, everyone else must be allowed to get on with their lives.
The government is talking about next spring or early summer to get back to something close to normal, but it has to be faster than that. If the Oxford team can go from a permanent start to creating an effective vaccine in the space of 10 months, the same Herculean effort must be applied to its implementation.
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