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These are crucial weeks for Boris Johnson. It is also crucial for the country. We are caught in a perfect storm of a possible no-deal Brexit and a seemingly resurgent pandemic.
On Brexit, we may be moving towards a deal that will avoid the dangers of No Deal. But we are not there yet, and in the coming days the prime minister will have to decide whether to accept an inevitable compromise.
Covid-19, despite the recent shutdown, is making a comeback in many parts of the country, most notably London and the South East. Things are not looking so bright in the independent fiefdoms of Wales and Scotland either.
These are crucial weeks for Boris Johnson. It is also crucial for the country. We are caught in a perfect storm of a possible no-deal Brexit and a seemingly resurgent pandemic
Each of these challenges could derail the strongest and most competent leader. Together they present a test that is probably tougher than any that a British prime minister has faced in peacetime.
Is Boris up to the task? I admit that my opinion changes. I admire the way in which you have refused to be intimidated by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. He has seemed like a prime minister one could be proud of.
The unanswered question is whether he will recognize the moment when a compromise becomes desirable. Do you really think Britain would “prosper mightily” under No Deal? You can’t possibly know. It is a nonsense statement.
And Covid? Until his press conference yesterday afternoon, he was looking forward to it. There was reason to believe that he had finally faced the cursing scientists as they attacked him from all sides.
In the photo: the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen
The increasingly opportunistic leader of Labor, Sir Keir Starmer, attacked him during the prime minister’s question time, accusing Mr Johnson of ignoring medical advice. Sir Keir was too slippery to say whether he would allow the relaxation of the five-day rules to proceed.
In recent days, scientists have lined up to criticize Boris. According to the British Medical Journal and the Health Service Journal in a rare joint editorial, “The Government is about to make another big mistake that will cost many lives.” Pretty extreme stuff from two normally restricted posts.
Even public opinion may not be on your side. A YouGov poll of 3,856 adults, a sizeable sample, found that 57 percent of respondents believe current rules shouldn’t be suspended over Christmas.
So the prime minister has been attacked by people who have asked him to ‘cancel Christmas’. According to various newspaper reports yesterday, it appeared that he was determined not to be harassed. He would give us the interlude he had promised.
Trucks queue on the A20 road to enter the Port of Dover and board ferries to Europe
At the event, he stood his ground at the press conference, but only narrowly. With medical director Professor Chris Whitty (aka Professor Gloom) by his side, he urged us to enjoy a ‘Merry Christmas’ that involves as few trips or overnight stays as possible. We were advised to show “extreme caution”.
None of this sounded very funny. While you hoped you could celebrate people’s freedom to decide what to do for five short days, you sounded nervous and depressed. If we want a nice Christmas, we should wait until next year.
On the other hand, he was just offering us guidance. These were recommendations. Unlike the gloomy Prime Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, Johnson did not propose any new laws to make us behave at Christmas. Of course, it may not have succeeded in getting such legislation to overcome increasingly rebellious Conservative MPs.
It could be added that because millions of people have already made trips and other plans for Christmas, it was too late for the government to reverse the relaxation of the rules during the holiday season by changing the law.
Joyce Dowd, 94, receives the first of two injections with a dose of the Pfizer / BioNtech Covid-19 vaccine.
In defense of the Prime Minister, it is true that he said that it would be “frankly inhuman” to “ban Christmas”. Totalitarian could have been a better word. I hope that “banning” Christmas has never been on the government’s agenda.
My impression was that of a man doing his best with a bad job. He would have preferred not to have championed the idea of a brief respite several weeks ago in the middle of the confinement, when infection rates were expected to be lower than they have turned out to be.
In other words, as is often the case in this crisis, events appear to be guiding you. He is doing the right thing, allowing us to have our brief experience of freedom, albeit while trying to drag our flesh in the process. But it has not been freed from Professor Whitty and the scientists. They are still in charge.
How long can this last? Drakeford yesterday announced a closure in Wales immediately after Christmas. Professor Whitty said that the partial suspension of the rules, even with all the dire warnings and advice from the government, “would lead to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths.” The government is likely to declare another blockade in England in January.
Not that the previous lockdown, which ended in early December, appeared to have had much effect in containing the rising infection rates in London and the South East.
Another lockdown would inflict further damage on an already weakened economy. More unemployment, more canceled operations, more mental health problems, more bankrupt companies. Public finances, already under unprecedented pressure outside of wartime, would suffer an additional, possibly calamitous blow.
And yet we can be fairly certain that it will be proposed because this country is run by the Department of Health and scientists (with the cynical support of Labor) and not by the Government with the advice of practical economists.
Don’t we have a vaccine that could save us? So they say. But there are indications that it may not be available as quickly as it should. According to the National Audit Office, less than half the population will be vaccinated by the end of next year.
The test for Boris is whether he is content to follow a script written by Professors Gloom and Doom, or whether he is prepared to take over the rattle of the train and instill the confidence and faith this country so desperately needs.
In recent weeks, Johnson has often seemed a more important figure, at least in his dealings with Ursula von der Leyen and the EU. He has finally been his own man. This may be because Dominic Cummings no longer tells you what to do.
By the way, it is absolutely outrageous that Cummings received a raise of some £ 45,000, about 50 per cent of his salary, last year. This is an absurd reward for a man who, having violated the blockade, without any further demonstration of repentance, did incalculable damage to the Prime Minister.
Boris realizes that? I do not know. He seems so affably willing and boisterous at times, although he’s not always fully involved in the rough business of the government.
This is your moment and the future of the country. If Boris can get us out of this nightmarish pandemic instead of being led by scientists, and if he can strike an honorable deal with the EU, it will be a magnificent achievement. We will soon find out if you are up to the task.
