STEPHEN DAISLEY: Dividing the Union would be even more difficult than leaving the EU

The Scots are so skeptical of Boris Johnson that whatever he does, the question is not whether he will harm the Union, but to what extent.

And so his last-minute Brexit deal wasn’t met with as many sighs of relief north of the border as it was at Westminster.

No less than 62 per cent of Scottish voters supported the camp of permanence in the 2016 referendum and are now being forced out of the EU by exit voters in England.

This can only increase the appetite for independence, which is already increasing.

The Scots are so skeptical of Boris Johnson that whatever he does, the question is not whether he will harm the Union, but to what extent.

Of the 22 opinion polls on the subject published since January, 18 have shown a majority in favor of secession, with the most recent registering a considerable 58 percent in favor of a breakup.

And one of Boris’s problems is that while his deal is unlikely to win him friends in Scotland, it could alienate some.

The fishing communities on the northeast coast of Scotland, mainly in Peterhead and Fraserburgh, are very proud of their industry and were looking forward to an agreement that would restore their ancestral fishing rights.

These areas are where many of Scotland’s permission votes originated and have formed the backbone of the revived fortunes of the Conservatives in recent elections.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross won his constituency of Moray, home to busy ports in Cullen and Buckie, in large part thanks to Brexit-minded fishermen.

Among these trawlers, the Common Fisheries Policy is discussed with a vehemence that would make Nigel Farage pale.

Under the Brexit deal, 25 per cent of the fishing rights of EU vessels in UK waters will be transferred to the British fleet for five and a half years.

By JUNE 2026, it is estimated that UK vessels will have access to an additional £ 145 million fishing quota each year.

The Scottish Fishermen’s Federation says it is “hugely disappointing” that Downing Street has breached red lines, such as zone quotas, which would have given the UK a much higher share of quotas.

The Scottish National Party knows how to win votes in these communities and its leader Nicola Sturgeon was soon out to fight.

“ While we do not yet have full details on the nature of the deal, it appears that the major promises made by the UK government on fisheries have been broken and the extent of these broken promises will be apparent to all very soon, ” he said Thursday. .

The issue is especially important now with the Scottish Parliament elections on the cards for May. It is widely predicted that Sturgeon will achieve victory and will argue that he has a mandate for another independence referendum, which, as we have seen, would be in a good position to win.

Boris Johnson’s last-minute Brexit deal wasn’t greeted with as many sighs of relief north of the border as it was in Westminster.

But all signs are that divorcing the UK would be much more painful than parting ways with the EU.

While a fifth of Scottish exports go to the EU, 60 percent of its exports go to the rest of the UK.

Putting any impediment in the way of this lucrative trade would be economic suicide, but if an independent Scotland were admitted to the EU, it would be forced to deal with its largest trading partner under the terms of the new Brexit deal.

Then there is the question of free movement. It is difficult to imagine how the 5.4 million Scottish citizens could be allowed to work or settle in the UK without extending the same right to the 446 million European citizens who would have the right to reside in Scotland.

Brexit may have fueled Scotland’s independence campaign, but it has also become a political minefield.