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The number of people in Britain who have died from Covid-19 so far could be as high as 45,000, a data expert warned today.
Statistician Jamie Jenkins says the figure reflects the difference in the number of people who have died since the pandemic began in Britain, compared to the average number of deaths during the same period in the past five years.
The latest government figures show that 27,510 people in Britain died from Covid-19, an increase from 739 the day before.
But the former chief health analyst at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says figures from the UK’s statistical authority suggest that around 90 percent of these ‘excessive deaths’ could be related to Covid-19.
Using these data, around 42,000 people in England and Wales and 3,000 in Scotland could have died in Covid-19 related forms between the start of the pandemic and April 29, he says.
The number of people in Britain who have died from Covid-19 so far could be as high as 45,000, data expert Jamie Jenkins warned. In picture: Mr. Jenkins has been producing charts from ONS statistics
The former chief health analyst at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says figures from the UK’s statistical authority show that there have been around 45,000 excess deaths in Britain since the pandemic began, compared to the five-year average for the same period. In picture: Mr. Jenkins has been producing charts from ONS statistics
Using the data, around 42,000 people in England and Wales and 3,000 in Scotland could have died in Covid-19 related forms between the start of the pandemic and April 29, Jenkins says. In the image: a graph showing the government’s death and infection figures
Jenkins, who has been posting daily chart updates to his Twitter account, said his analysis takes into account other factors, including fewer deaths on the road due to reduced traffic while the country is blocked.
He says the difference in excess death figures and official government Covid-19 death figures could be explained by deaths in nursing homes and the community.
Initially, the government figures were only those who died in the hospital. But on Wednesday, the government added another 4,000 deaths in nursing homes and in the community.
Statistician Jamie Jenkins, a former chief health analyst with the Office for National Statistics (ONS), believes that Covid-19 deaths in Britain could reach 45,000
Jenkins said: ‘Previously, the figures included those who died in the hospital who mentioned Covid-19 on their death certificate.
“But if people weren’t getting the test done in nursing homes, for example, and doctors were reluctant at first to mention it if they didn’t know, that won’t be marked in the numbers.”
“Now that the government is testing in nursing homes, the numbers are likely to be more in line with the numbers of excessive deaths.”
Jenkins’ analysis of the figures shows that, on average, there were 12,741 in the first week of the year in the past five years.
But the numbers were lower this year, at around 11,900, which Jenkins said was due to a weaker strain of seasonal flu.
That trend continued until week 12 of the year, the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when this year’s weekly deaths were above average.
The 2020 figure continued to rise until the past three weeks, where the number of weekly deaths was around 20,000 people, roughly double the five-year average.
Jenkins says the lower than average death rate at the beginning of the year, due to the weaker form of seasonal flu, may have contributed to a higher death rate at the start of the Covid-19 outbreak.
He said: ‘We had a very bad flu season in 2015 and 2018 in the UK.
‘In 2020, it appears that, on average, the flu death rate was much lower than the five-year average.
‘There were around 14,000 fewer deaths this year compared to the five-year average before the coronavirus outbreak.
“Many of the 14,000 who survived the weaker flu were likely people who would have been susceptible to Covid-19.”
As previously reported by MailOnline, the government figures initially focused on those who died in the hospital.
On Wednesday, the government added more than 3,800 deaths of those who had died of Covid-19 in nursing homes and the community.
But the numbers disagreed with the ONS figures, which showed that at least 4,996 deaths were recorded in nursing homes in the two weeks to April 24.
It comes among a huge increase in testing across the UK.
Last night, Health Secretary Matt Hancock stated in a Press report that 122,000 tests had been conducted in the 24 hours at 9 am yesterday, a whopping increase of just 10,000 in early April.
Mr. Hancock said last night that the next phase of dealing with Covid-19, which will include more community testing and contact tracing, will allow the government “to reaffirm, as much as possible, the freedom of all of us.”
But it emerged that around 40,000 of those counted tests were sent to homes and hospitals, and were not actually processed.
Government testing coordinator Professor John Newton this morning He told the BBC Radio 4 Today program that the goal had been met “in any way you tell it,” but warned people not to. getting too obsessed with goals.
Earlier this week, Boris Johnson declared that Britain is “beyond the peak” of the coronavirus, but urged the public to “move forward” with the blockade to prevent a new outbreak.
So far there have been more than 177,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK, with the highest number of new cases occurring on April 11, when there were 8,719.
