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There is uncertainty about the value of COVID-19 R and the growth rate in the Southwest, as the national numbers continue to rise.
Estimates released today by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) put the R-value in England between 1.2 and 1.4, from the published figure of between 1.0 and 1.2 last week, when the number in England increased. above 1 for the first time since early March.
R represents the average number of people each person infects with COVID-19, and a value greater than 1 means that the virus could be spreading exponentially.
SAGE also said it is concerned that coronavirus cases are currently doubling as fast as every seven days nationally, with transmission rates potentially even faster in some areas of the country.
However, the latest figures for the Southwest, a region that covers Devon, Cornwall, Somerset, Dorset, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire, show that there is greater uncertainty about how the virus is spreading.
The Government now has the Southwest R rate between 0.9 and 1.6, the largest range in the country. Last week, the R value was between 0.9 and 1.2.
This wide range could be good news, because the government says there is a high degree of variability in transmission in a region when the number of cases or deaths falls to low levels.
No new COVID-related deaths have been reported in the region since Sept. 8, with the last death before that was reported on Aug. 27.
The latest government figures also give the Southwest the widest range of potential% growth rate per day, between 0% and + 9%, compared to between minus 1% and plus 4% last week.
At the national level, the figure is between + 3% and + 7%
| Region | R | Growth rate% per day |
|---|---|---|
| England | 1.2-1.4 | +3 to +7 |
| East of england | 1.0-1.3 | 0 to +5 |
| London | 1.1-1.4 | +3 to +7 |
| the midlands of England | 1.2-1.5 | +4 to +8 |
| Northeast and Yorkshire | 1.2-1.4 | +3 to +8 |
| northwest | 1.2-1.5 | +3 to +8 |
| Southeast | 1.1-1.4 | +3 to +7 |
| South west | 0.9-1.6 | 0 to +9 |
SAGE said: “It is even more important that people stay disciplined and adhere to the current rules.”
The growth rate for the UK, which estimates how quickly the number of infections changes from day to day, is between + 3% and + 7%.
The most likely value is in the middle of that range, say experts advising the government.
The scientists behind the data said that the doubling times for coronavirus infections can be estimated from the positive growth rates.
But they also said that R and growth rates are not the only important measures of the epidemic and should be considered alongside other metrics.
These include the number of new cases of the disease identified during a specific time period (incidence) and the proportion of the population with the disease at any given time (prevalence).
Experts also said that the weekly ONS Infection Survey has identified the same trends as SPI-M in recent weeks.
Figures from the ONS, also released on Friday, show that an average of 6,000 people in England per day were estimated to be first infected with Covid-19 between September 4-10, compared to an average of 3,200. people per day for the period of August 30. to September 5.
But as cases continue to rise, experts say they now have a better estimate of these numbers and this week’s data is “considered reliable.”
Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, described the latest figures as “undoubtedly troubling.”
He said: “Even at growth rates within the estimated range, the number of new cases could grow to high levels quickly if interventions are not effective enough.”
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