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British weddings, birthdays, funerals and religious services could fail until 2021 amid fears that the coronavirus will spread at an exponential rate, scientists say.
Holding large indoor events runs the risk of allowing the average infection rate to potentially triple, especially in poorly ventilated places, according to research led by senior epidemiologist Adam Kucharski.
He warned that the UK could face a second spike if the blockade is lifted too quickly, with Boris Johnson ready to announce his ‘road map’ to ease restrictions during the bank holiday.
While Dr. Mike Lonergan, lead author of a study by the University of Dundee Division of Molecular Medicine and Clinic, fears Britain may not return to “normal” until a vaccine is found.
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Dr. Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the Sunday Times: “As soon as the measures are lifted, we run the risk of going back to where we started, facing exponential growth.”
“Look where these over-the-top events happen, often at family reunions and lunches, weddings and parties and all of these things that we socially want to see happen.”
Dr. Kucharski has suggested to the government that social restrictions remain in place until next year, which calls into question even traditional Christmas celebrations.
Dr. Lonergan, meanwhile he told the Daily Mail: “If we want things to be stable, they must be as they are now, in a blockade. This will have to stay until something drastic changes.”
It occurs when Sir John Bell, the lead scientist behind a possible vaccine developed at the University of Oxford, revealed that it may be clear if it works in June.
However, others have suggested that it could take 18 months before the vaccines are ready for mass distribution.
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Dr. Longergan also believes that people will only be able to enjoy 10 percent of their previous social lives and believes that the world has been lucky that social distancing has managed to keep the spread.
The research sets of both experts will be discussed at a meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) next week.
Despite the fact that Wetherspoon’s founder Tim Martin announced that he plans to reopen branches in June, the government has confirmed that pubs will be the last places to reopen.
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who fought COVID-19 last month, said Sunday that the country was at the top but it was still too early to relax the blockade measures, which are likely to last until June.
Johnson is expected to reveal his roadmap to ease closing restrictions next Sunday, but he is not expected to set firm dates.
However, it is likely to confirm the “gradual” reopening of schools, while companies and unions have been sent guidelines on how to make workplaces safe for returning staff.
The prime minister also said the government is “observing” relaxing laws that restrict supermarket opening hours.
While some local cricket and grassroots teams may return, as long as spectators can stay outdoors.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Jenny Harries said: “Outdoor environments are safer. But if you go with a lot of friends and sit in a pub … that’s not a good thing. “
At yesterday’s Downing Street briefing, Cabinet Minister Michael Gove confirmed that 28,446 people died of coronavirus in the UK, up from 315 the day before, the smallest in weeks. The United Kingdom has 186,599 confirmed cases.
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