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One of the government’s scientific advisers has said that repeated “mini-shutdowns” could be effective as a tool to control Covid-19 cases.
The suggestion from Professor John Edmunds, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), comes amid mounting evidence that the prevalence of the virus is increasing among the elderly and most vulnerable.
A quarter of the country now lives under stricter Covid-19 restrictions, including domestic mixing bans, with London on the brink of new measures. Scotland has already introduced stricter rules.
Until now, the government has opposed the so-called “circuit breaker,” actually a two-week mini national shutdown, which had been advocated by some scientists.
However, with warnings of an increase in daily deaths looming as the virus grows, Edmunds, dean of the faculty of epidemiology and population health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the implementing more than one circuit breaker could be effective. .
“A circuit breaker or mini-lock can be used to reset the clock,” he told the Observer. “The idea would be to return the incidence to what it was a few weeks before. Replaces two weeks of exponential growth with two weeks of decline in cases. This can have a big effect on the total number of cases, especially if it is implemented shortly after the epidemic begins to grow.
“To maximize the effect, longer-term measures are also needed to curb growth, perhaps in line with what Scotland has done. Of course, it is possible to make more than one circuit breaker, perhaps one now and one in the medium term. This could help reduce cases and deaths and, since the measures are short-lived and can be planned, potentially limit the impact on the economy. “
David Hunter, professor of epidemiology and medicine at the University of Oxford, said travel restrictions should be considered in the medium term “to reduce the spread of the virus in areas where the prevalence is low.”
The spread of the virus has nearly tripled among 60-year-olds since the beginning of the month, official data analyzed by Duncan Robertson, a policy and strategy analysis expert at Loughborough University shows. There are 23 cases per 100,000 60-year-olds, up from eight per 100,000 at the end of August; and 22 cases per 100,000 people over the age of 80, compared to nine cases at the end of August.
Robertson said: “It is vitally important that infections are minimized in older age groups. Without a working test and tracing system, people are less likely to be tested and their contacts are less likely to be traced, allowing the epidemic to spread throughout the population, including vulnerable groups. “
The government has so far said that the reintroduction of the national protection program is not necessary. However, major charities offering help and services to vulnerable groups, such as those with severe asthma and the elderly, said they had seen an increase in people isolating themselves at home. They said hundreds of thousands had not stopped protecting themselves since the pandemic began, leading to serious mental health problems.
“Some people chose to go out more during the summer months,” said Ruthe Isden, Age UK’s director of health and care influence. “And of course, with everything that’s on the news, that mood is changing again.”
Sarah MacFadyen, director of policy and external affairs for Asthma UK and the British Lung Foundation, said plans were needed to avoid the problems that emerged last spring, when some people struggled to access food, while others were it provided help they didn’t need. .
James Taylor, executive director of strategy, impact and social change for the disability charity Scope, called for greater clarity in communicating with those most at risk.
“Some of the things we’ve heard in the last few days is that many are quite concerned and confused about what they should and shouldn’t do and what rules specifically apply to them,” he said.
