[ad_1]
For the staunch Scottish pro-independence activists still connected on Christmas Eve afternoon, the message couldn’t have been simpler: the only way to escape the Brexit disaster is to get out of the UK as soon as possible.
Brexit has significantly changed the nature of support for independence since 62% of Scotland voted to remain in the EU in 2016, against the UK, but the question remains whether the conclusion of a trade and Post-Brexit security will further change the sentiment of voters. .
While the expected “Brexit rebound” did not materialize immediately, with voters dubious about inviting further constitutional uncertainty, polls have shown a steady rise in support for independence over the past four years.
After the Brexit vote, there was some balance between Scots who voted to stay and then went from no to yes on independence, and those who were disenchanted abandoned voters who abandoned their nationalist sympathies.
Since then, the rise in support for independence has occurred among voters who remain and who leave, as this year support for independence reached 58% in polls, attributed in part to the leader of the SNP, the impressive Nicola Sturgeon’s pandemic management.
It may be a bit far from the convincing proportions that some in the pro-independence camp believe they must achieve to avoid a Brexit-style split, but it has nonetheless put the Westminster cabinet on a war footing.
Whether the deal itself would increase support for independence would depend on whether Scots’ dissatisfaction with Brexit was already “built into” the poll numbers, said Sir John Curtice, a veteran analyst and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde. .
“It depends on what happens in the next few months and if the change turns into irritating friction, for example, if Dover is still stuck, post-Covid people [pandemic] flights get canceled and they get huge cell phone bills. “
The battle now is for narrative: while Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross was quick to tout the end of the “hated” common fisheries policy, Sturgeon was already arguing that the fishermen had been scammed.
The SNP will take advantage of specifically Scottish examples of injury in the details of the deal, such as the exclusion of seed potatoes, a premium Scottish export.
The first significant proof of who is winning that battle will be the Scottish parliamentary elections in May, where the SNP is already forecast to win a majority in Holyrood that many believe will make the case for a second independence referendum unanswerable.
For Curtice, British Labor support for the Brexit deal when it is presented to parliament next week could hamper the campaign for the Scottish party, which was hampered in the last general election by the UK leadership’s stance on Brexit .
“If Labor wants to appeal to the Scottish electorate after voting for a deal, it will be very difficult. Voters who remain unhappy with Brexit are unlikely to go to the Scottish Labor Party, and the SNP has already eaten a large proportion of them. “
In the latest Holyrood election, held just before the Brexit vote, former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson’s opposition to Brexit allowed her to effectively distance herself between Scottish Conservatives, her UK counterparts and Boris Johnson himself, the man who remains, for many Scots. voters: the embodiment of Brexit.
His successor is well aware of the effect of Brexit on supporting independence, but Scottish conservative strategists believe they can effectively neutralize continued criticism of Brexit by pointing to the division and chaos that another independence referendum could bring, as well as practical uncertainties. independence as a route back to the EU.
