Nord Stream 2: Why Germany Can Disconnect the Russian Pipeline

It was a short sentence in a German Sunday newspaper. But for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, it was potentially as damaging as an earthquake.

“I hope the Russians do not force us to change our position on Nord Stream 2,” said German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, as the dispute with Moscow over the poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny escalated.

The pipeline has always been controversial. It brings Russian gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea, with the aim of providing the country with affordable energy as it phas out nuclear power and coal. But critics argue that it makes Germany too trustworthy with regard to the energy of a politically unreliable partner.

The foreign minister asked Moscow to fully investigate the attack by a nerve agent on Navalny, who is being treated in a Berlin hospital. Otherwise, he hinted, removing Nord Stream 2 was now an option.

Just hours before German doctors announced Navalny was coming out of a coma, Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that she was also ready to reconsider her support for the pipeline.

“The German chancellor agrees with the foreign minister’s comments over the weekend,” Angela Merkel’s spokeswoman said on Monday.

Until this week, the official German government line was that the pipeline should be seen as a separate issue from the poisoning of Russia’s most prominent opposition leader.

But these latest comments mark a sudden hardening of attitudes towards Nord Stream 2 in Berlin. For the first time since construction began nearly a decade ago, the pipeline’s future appears threatened.

The first gas pipeline, Nord Stream 1, was completed in 2011. This second is almost complete and should be online in 2021: 2,300 km (1,430 miles) of the entire 2,460 km stretch have already been laid.

Not that Merkel and her Conservative party were necessarily enthusiastic pipeline cheerleaders. She inherited it from her predecessor, former center-left Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

Schröder enjoys a back-to-back bromance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he described as a “democrat from start to finish.” And after leaving office, he sparked outrage in Germany when he held various lucrative positions at Russian energy companies, including the supervisory board of Nord Stream.

Schröder is often accused of being a Putin propagandist. He is generally a strong voice in Russian-German relations and a vigorous advocate for the pipeline. But in recent days he has been remarkably quiet.

Chancellor Merkel’s government faces mounting criticism from European partners, who say the pipeline makes Germany too dependent on gas from a politically unreliable country. The United States is a particularly vociferous opponent and threatens sanctions against European companies involved in the project.

Now, the Navalny poisoning has sparked a fierce debate about the future of Nord Stream 2 in Germany. Some senior Green Party and conservative politicians are demanding the pipeline be removed.

But given that it is almost finished and that around € 8bn (£ 7.2bn; $ 9.4bn) has already been invested in the project, can it be stopped?

Supporters say unplugging it would damage Europe’s reputation as a stable place for investment and drive up prices for consumers. They also say that cutting the pipeline would leave the problem of where Germany can get its energy.

Ironically, one of the reasons many Germans support the pipeline is that its biggest critic is the president of the United States, Donald Trump. He does not like him in Germany and his rants against the pipeline only serve to increase his popularity.

Many voters suspect that he wants it removed to sell American fuel to Germany. Merkel has to avoid the impression that she is giving in to pressure from Trump.

Either way, if Germany were responsible for the Nord Stream failure, Berlin could be responsible for massive damage.

That is why the American and European opposition to Nord Stream could suddenly become quite useful to the Merkel government. Until now, Berlin has fought against efforts by the United States and Europe to thwart the project with EU sanctions or regulations.

If Angela Merkel decides to abandon the project, the cheapest tactic for Germany may be to simply quietly withdraw its support, let the US and EU critics of the pipeline kill the project, and possibly even pay the bill.