New lockdown ‘may not work like March’ as ​​scientists give stern coronavirus warning

The strict new blockade imposed by Boris Johnson on Monday night may not be able to contain the new variant of Covid, the scientists warned.

The prime minister ordered the schools closed, after just one day after Christmas, and again told people to “stay home” in response to the crude messages in March.

But scientists have warned that the strict lockdown may not even succeed in reducing infection rates as the first national lockdown did last spring.

A new national blockade remained “inevitable” and “necessary,” experts said, with daily cases reaching a record high of more than 58,000 yesterday.

But the new variant of the virus is a “game changer” and its high transmissibility means the latest lockdown may not be as effective as the initial shutdown in March, warned Professor Mark Woolhouse.

The University of Edinburgh professor of infectious disease epidemiology said: “The new variant is a game changer and made the prime minister’s announcement of a full national lockdown for England almost inevitable.

“Given the estimates of the transferability of the new variant, this blockade may not be as effective as last March.

“It may be that the best we can hope for is that the situation does not deteriorate further.”

He urged the government not to “focus solely on the confinement”, but to intensify other measures such as massive tests, better surveillance of cases and support for people who need to isolate themselves to maximize compliance with the “crucial intervention”.

Wellcome director Dr. Jeremy Farrar said the point had been reached where national lockdown restrictions were needed “immediately” and called on people to abide by the measures while health personnel fight the virus in the front.

He said: “Healthcare workers are working with selfless and inspiring dedication, but the demand is overwhelming the capacity for what these incredible professionals can provide.

“They must have our full support, which means that we all abide by the restrictions, helping to reduce the transmission of this terrible virus and ultimately reducing preventable deaths and hospitalizations.”

He reiterated the importance of ensuring access and global supply of Covid-19 vaccines, warning: “Let us leave one country behind and we will all be exposed to risk, as life takes longer and longer to return to normal.”

Oxford University Professor Sir Gordon Duff, former co-chair of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the lockdown is justified at a time of “national emergency.”

He said: “The announced measures, although difficult to bear, are justified. It was good to see the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition put aside political differences in the best interest of all.”

“There is no doubt that we are facing difficult times, but vaccines will give us an eventual victory.

Sage member Professor Calum Semple said easing restrictions in some areas during the holiday period, and the new, more transmissible variant, made new national measures inevitable.

The University of Liverpool academic told Sky News: “We are only now seeing the beginning of the price we have to pay for the mix of Christmas Eve and Christmas.

“With that and the new variant it was inevitable that we would have to close strongly at this stage.”

His comments were shared by Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the Government Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (Nervtag).

He said: “The new variant made these measures inevitable and necessary.

“The next few weeks will show if they are enough to suppress the new, much more transmissible variant that now predominates in the country.”

Dame Til Wykes, professor of clinical psychology and rehabilitation at King’s College London, said closing schools is not a decision to be taken lightly “but it is clearly the right decision to reduce the risk of transmission and save our NHS.” .

He added: “NHS staff continue to need our support.

“We don’t need to applaud them, we just have to stay home and follow all the rules.

“The evidence is that most people are being very careful, but there are still some who think that Covid-19 is a myth or that they are immortal, neither is true.”

Dr David Strain of the University of Exeter School of Medicine, Co-Chair of the British Medical Association Medical Academic Staff Committee, said: “We welcome the Prime Minister’s definitive actions to halt the rise of the coronavirus and the accompanying hospitalizations, albeit a little later. ” than we would have liked and science would have dictated “.

In a televised address to the nation on Monday night, the Prime Minister told the nation to stay indoors with limited exceptions, and the measures are expected to last until mid-February.

And the Prime Minister gave in to significant pressure for primary schools, secondary schools and universities to switch to remote teaching for the majority of students starting Tuesday.

Johnson said the new variant, which is up to 70% more transmissible, was spreading in a “frustrating and alarming” way, warning that the number of Covid patients in English hospitals is 40% higher than the first. peak.

“As I speak to you tonight, our hospitals are under more pressure from Covid than at any time since the start of the pandemic,” he said.

He also promised to vaccinate those over 70, nursing home residents and NHS workers in mid-February, adding: “The next few weeks will be the hardest yet, but I really think we are entering the last. phase of the fight because with every blow that hits our arms, we are tilting the odds against Covid and in favor of the British people. “