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Scientists advising the UK government believe that the planned new Covid restrictions do not go far enough and that “fringe” anti-lockdown epidemiologists are gaining too much attention, The Guardian found.
Members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) believe that a potential closure of pubs and restaurants in the North and Midlands, expected next week after delays that one MP has called “reckless”, is unlikely to reduce cases to a more manageable level.
Speaking anonymously, some of the experts argued that a circuit breaker-type intervention of the kind that is being imposed in Scotland since Friday should have been enacted in England two or three weeks ago when such a measure was discussed with ministers. This would have involved a two-week shutdown for hospitality venues and other parts of society to reduce cases and hospital admissions.
With the UK recording more than 17,500 new Covid-19 infections on Thursday, nearly 25% more than the day before, and Northern England leaders in open rebellion over imminent closure plans, some scientists believe already more should have been done.
A senior scientist said the UK was at a critical point and deeper measures were needed to control the resurgence.
Another epidemiologist, Professor John Edmunds, who works at Sage, said a circuit breaker was needed to prevent the health service from being overwhelmed.
“The epidemic is increasing and it is widespread,” Edmunds said. “Of course it is most severe in the north and northwest, but it is increasing everywhere, so we have to take action unless we want to deal with a really high number of short-term hospitalizations and unfortunately a large number of deceased. This is still a killer virus, despite improvements in treatment. “
There is also concern within Sage about the influence of a relatively small number of public health scholars who oppose the new closure measures, and some members are understood to be upset by the level of coverage they have received.
This week, thousands of supporters of the Great Barrington declaration urged governments in the UK, the US and elsewhere to abandon strategies to suppress the virus and instead let the infection spread among the healthy while protect the vulnerable.
It’s unclear how the vulnerable would be identified and protected, and whether allowing the epidemic to rage out of control in healthy people would lead to the kind of herd immunity that its authors hope will protect everyone. “I don’t see where the evidence is to back it up,” said the lead scientist.
Concern about the government’s ability to curb the spread of the coronavirus in the coming weeks has been motivated in part by uncertainty about what new measures will be introduced and when.
The Guardian understands that most of the North of England, from Barrow in Cumbria to Merseyside, Greater Manchester, much of Lancashire and Yorkshire and most of the North East, as well as Nottinghamshire in the Midlands, expects to be under Covid restrictions as part. of a new three-tier alert system originally expected to be announced this week.
On Thursday, a government source said the plan was to make the announcement on Monday, and that the measures would go into effect on Wednesday. Parliamentarians from the affected areas were summoned for a video briefing on Thursday with Health Minister Edward Argar and Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer.
The report warned that the number of Covid patients in intensive care in the north of England would exceed the April peak if infections continued to increase at the current rate.
Parliamentarians were also shown early research from Public Health England suggesting that bars, pubs and restaurants account for 41% of cases where two or more under 30s had visited the same place in the week before test positive. This was down to a quarter of infections in all age groups.
One of the deputies later expressed his frustration. “We got some interesting data, but policy questions were banned,” said Lilian Greenwood, a Labor member from Nottingham South. On Thursday, Nottingham had the UK’s highest Covid infection rate, with 689 cases per 100,000 people.
“I asked how science supported the postponement of additional restrictions in Nottingham until next Wednesday, especially now that they have been announced to the media so that everyone knows that this is their last weekend to meet up with friends and family inside. .
As expected, I got a desperate response. A lot of waffles and excuses about ‘there are many things to consider’, ‘regulations take time’ and ‘that is a decision of the ministers’, those who do not answer questions. I’m fuming, it’s reckless. “
Another complication is an expected support package for companies affected by the new restrictions, which is expected to be announced by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, most likely a day after the measures are announced.
Treasury sources said Sunak had put together a menu of options over the summer and acknowledged that the employment support plan, which was the centerpiece of its winter economic plan announced a fortnight ago, would not be suitable for areas where it was closing. a whole sector. .
Sunak’s allies denied that he had delayed the introduction of new closures, insisting that he was willing to give companies clarity on the new rules they would face.
