Ministers used figures based on fewer than 100 pubs to justify the plan to close thousands



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The ministers were accused of using flimsy data after they relied on figures based on fewer than 100 pubs to justify the possible closure of tens of thousands of venues in the north of England.

It came as the number 10 faced backlash from local leaders and parliamentarians over plans to subject millions of people living in the north to even tighter restrictions starting next week.

Medical director Professor Chris Whitty briefed MPs yesterday to tell them that a “ significant proportion ” of exposure to the coronavirus was occurring in the hotel sector.

He showed them a table that suggested that 32 percent of the broadcast could be happening in pubs, bars, cafes, and restaurants.

Chris Whitty's claim that a

Chris Whitty’s claim that a ‘significant proportion’ of coronavirus exposure was occurring in the hotel sector has been criticized. With a Conservative MP describing government data as ‘incredibly thin’

But last night it emerged that the Public Health England data was based on a very small sample size.

It is derived from contact tracing data for just 98 pubs and 67 cafes and restaurants.

A PHE spokesperson said each reported case concerned two separate Covid-positive patients who had been in the same location for the past week.

Last night the British Beer and Pub Association warned the Government that the data was not good enough to justify closing pubs.

Government data had stated that 32 percent of the broadcast may be occurring in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants, but the data has been found to be taken from a sample of fewer than 170 businesses.

Government data had claimed that 32 percent of the broadcast may be occurring in pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants, but the data has been found to be taken from a sample of fewer than 170 companies.

The document that spilled the beans

The controversial data cited by Professor Whitty is based on an “enhanced contact tracing” exercise, the Health Department said.

Ask people who they met and where they met. But it is based on a very small sample.

If two infected people tell the trackers that they have been in a location in the last week, it is considered an indication, but not proof, that the virus may have passed between them.

But they haven’t even had to be there at the same time.

The data shows that there were 98 occasions when two or more people told contact trackers that they had been to the same pub.

Another 67 cases concerned people who had been to the same cafe or restaurant.

One expert suggested that 7,000 locations across the north would be forced to close. But Downing Street denied that decisions have yet been made on the closure measures.

A Conservative MP who attended the briefing said: ‘It is clear that the data to justify further action on hospitality is incredibly scarce.

“It’s so weak that they can’t even publish it.”

Professor Whitty also cited data from the US of questionable relevance and seemed to suggest that the national curfew at 10pm for pubs, bars and restaurants introduced last month was based solely on the fact that other countries do so. had imposed.

Last night, northern politicians lined up to condemn the prime minister for the ‘reckless’ plan to close all pubs and restaurants in the worst hit areas.

Andy Burnham, Labor Mayor of Greater Manchester, told BBC Radio 4’s World At One: “I will no longer tolerate a situation where they impose things on the north of England that will cause real harm to people’s lives.”

And Emma McClarkin, from the British Beer and Pub Association, said: ‘We have yet to see the strong evidence in England that blanket measures to block pubs, with their strict adherence to government guidelines, will significantly stop the spread of the virus . .

But Ben Bradley, a Conservative MP from Mansfield, who was on the call, said: “ We talked about the Northwest and the Northeast in particular, where we were talking, in three weeks, of having higher levels of hospitalization than the original peak. ‘

Steve Rotheram, Mayor of the Liverpool City Region, told ITV’s Good Morning Britain: “The North simply shouldn’t be a Petri dish for central government experimentation.”

The Secretary of Communities, Robert Jenrick, was close yesterday to confirm that an action is coming.

“It is correct to say that the number of cases in the North West and North East and various cities, particularly in the Midlands like Nottingham, are increasing rapidly and that is a serious situation,” he said.

“We are currently considering what action we should take, obviously on the advice of our scientific and medical advisers, and a decision will be made shortly.”

Hospitality industry bosses have said government data is insufficient to support a proposed pub closure in northern parts, amid fears that as many as 7,000 places could close.

Hospitality industry bosses have said government data is insufficient to support a proposed pub closure in parts of the north, amid fears that up to 7,000 places could close.

Altus Group, a property consultant, estimated that 7,200 pubs could be closed in the north, one in five of all English pubs.

Last night a government spokesman admitted that the ‘early analysis’ did not constitute proof of transmission.

“We are seeing an increase in coronavirus cases across the country, with particularly rapid growth in the Northeast and Northwest,” he said.

“We constantly monitor data and are considering a variety of options to suppress the virus, protect communities and save lives.”

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