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By David Churchill
What has happened to the coronavirus to trigger such concern?
A new strain of Covid has been developed that is said to spread much faster. A “strain” is a new version of a virus that has genetic mutations. The new strain is a version of Sars-Cov-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 disease.
It has been named VUI-202012/01. These letters and numbers represent ‘variant under investigation’ and the month, December 2020.
What makes it so worrisome?
This particular variant is defined by up to 17 changes or mutations in the coronavirus spike protein. It is the combination of some of these changes that scientists believe could make it more infectious.
It is believed that they could help the virus’s spike protein adhere to human cells and access it more easily.
Is it sure that the new variation is accelerating the spread of the virus?
No, but scientists say preliminary evidence suggests it does.
Boris Johnson said it can spread up to 70 percent more easily than other strains of the virus, which could significantly increase the ‘R rate’, which measures how quickly the virus spreads.
On Saturday night, Johnson said he could raise the ‘R rate’ by as much as 0.4.
This would be particularly significant in areas such as eastern England, where it is 1.4, and both London and the South East, where it is 1.3. The ‘R rate’ must stay below 1 for infections to decrease.
Is the new variant more dangerous?
Scientists don’t believe it for now. When asked Saturday night if it was more lethal than the previous strain, Medical Director Professor Chris Whitty said “the answer appears to be ‘No’, as far as we know at this point.”
Yesterday, Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England said there was evidence that people with the new variant had higher viral loads within them.
But he said this did not mean that people got sicker.
Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, said: “It is unlikely to make people sick, but it could make it more difficult to control.”
If it makes the virus more difficult to control and hospitals are invaded, it could pose new challenges.
Are mutations unusual?
No. Seasonal flu mutates every year. Sars-Cov-2 variants have also been observed in other countries, such as Spain.
However, a scientific paper suggests that the number and combination of changes that have occurred in this new variant is potentially “unprecedented.”
Most of the mutations observed to date are believed to have occurred more slowly. Also, most of the changes do not affect how easily the virus spreads.
There are already around 4,000 mutations in the spike protein gene.
What has caused the mutation?
This is still being investigated. One theory is that the growing natural immunity in the UK population, making it difficult for the virus to spread, could have forced it to adapt.
Another theory is that it has developed in chronically ill patients who have fought the virus for a long period of time and then spread it to others.
Professor Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said yesterday that it was “plausible” and “very likely” that this has happened.
However, he stressed that it is impossible to prove at the moment.
What evidence is there to support this last theory?
Some supporting evidence was detected when virus samples were collected from a Cambridge patient. They had been treated with convalescent plasma, blood plasma containing antibodies from a recovered patient.
The virus may have mutated during this treatment, developing more resistance to the antibodies. This patient died from the infection, but it is also possible that the mutation occurred elsewhere.
An article co-authored by Andrew Rambaut, Professor of Molecular Evolution at the University of Edinburgh, states: ‘If antibody therapy is given after many weeks of chronic infection, the virus population can be unusually large and genetically diverse .. creating suitable circumstances for the rapid fixation of multiple virus genetic changes. ‘
Professor Hunter added: “Mutation in viruses is a random event and the longer someone is infected, the more likely a random event is to occur.”
What do these mutations do?
Many occur in what is called the ‘receptor-binding domain’ of the spike protein of the virus. This helps the virus adhere to human cells and gain entry. Mutations make it easier for the virus to bind to ACE2 receptors on human cells.
It is also possible that the changes help the virus avoid human antibodies that would otherwise help fight the infection.
Who detected it?
It was discovered by the Covid-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, which carries out random genetic sequencing of covid-19 positive samples.
It is a consortium of the four UK public health agencies, the Wellcome Sanger Institute and 12 academic institutions.
How long have you been in the UK and where did it start?
As of mid-December, there were more than 1,000 cases in nearly 60 different local authorities, although the actual number will be higher.
They have been found predominantly in the south-east of England, in Kent and London. It can now represent 60 percent of the capital’s cases.
But it has been detected elsewhere, including Wales and Scotland.
The first two samples were collected on September 20 in Kent and another the following day in London.
Why were no action taken earlier?
Because academics discovered the potentially higher transmissibility late last week.
Has it been detected elsewhere in the world?
One aspect of the new variant, known as the N501Y mutation, was circulating in Australia between June and July, in the United States in July and in Brazil as early as April, according to the scientists.
Therefore, it is unclear what role, if any, travelers carrying the virus may have played.
Dr Julian Tang, virologist and respiratory science expert at the University of Leicester, said: ‘Whether or not these viruses were brought to the UK and Europe later by travelers or spontaneously emerged in multiple locations around the world, in response to a human host immunological selection pressures – requires further investigation. ‘
Another change, known as the D614G variant, had previously been detected in Western Europe and North America. But the new variant may have evolved in the UK.
What can I do to avoid getting the new variant?
Same old business: stay away from people, wash your hands regularly, wear a mask, and comply with the level restrictions in your area.
Yesterday Dr Chaand Nagpaul, President of the British Medical Association, said: “The way the spread of the virus, including this new variant, is controlled is exactly the same. It is about continuing with strict measures. The same rules apply. ‘
Will the new variant reduce the effectiveness of vaccines?
More studies are needed.
Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England said that until they are carried out, scientists cannot be sure whether, and to what extent, the new variant reduces the effectiveness of developed vaccines.
She said: “The vaccine induces a strong, multiple-response immune response, and therefore this response to the vaccine is unlikely to disappear completely.” When mutations occur, it is theoretically possible that antibodies generated by vaccines could be evaded.
But vaccines produce a wide range of antibodies that simultaneously attack the virus from different angles, making it difficult for you to evade them all at once.
Vaccines could also be modified to make them more effective if the new mutation proves to be more resistant to them.
So what are scientists doing now?
Scientists will grow the new strain in the lab to see how it responds. This includes looking at whether it produces the same antibody response, how it reacts to the vaccine, and modeling the new strain.
This process can take up to two weeks to complete.
