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The Nicola Sturgeon government is considering imposing the toughest covid restrictions on North and South Lanarkshire, according to a leaked document.
The letter shows that both areas of the council could be placed at “level 4”, near the close on 2 November.
The infection levels in Dundee are also causing concern and the city could face further restrictions if placed at level 3.
Glasgow and Edinburgh face no changes remaining at level 3.
Nicola Sturgeon announced last week that a new five-tier approach would be introduced across the country starting November 2 and the tier will depend on the spread of Covid-19 in the areas of local authorities.
He explained that areas in the central belt that are currently subject to stricter local restrictions are likely to be classified as level three, while other areas may be equivalent to level two.
She is expected to say tomorrow what levels will apply to different areas.
However, a letter from the government to COSLA, the council’s coordinating group, gives a clear indication of the ministers’ thinking.
Written by Kenneth Thomson, a senior civil servant, it says:
“I hope it will be helpful if I establish the approach that is being taken for these decisions. The starting point is the measures currently in force. These are broadly equivalent to Level 3 in the central belt and Level 2 elsewhere. Changes to these levels, either up or down, must be justified by data, supported by public health councils and consistent with the COVID-19 Scottish Government Decision-Making Framework. “
He explained: “Due to the severity of the impact of the measures at the highest level, Level 4, Ministers will only consider using it if necessary. The data currently indicates that level of concern for two areas: Level 4 is being considered for North and South Lanarkshire.
“However, there are some indications in the latest data that the situation in those areas may be stabilizing. Ministers will not reach a decision on these two areas until the last possible moment to ensure that they can take into account the fullest possible picture of the effect of the measures already in place; but at this stage the use of Level 4 cannot be ruled out. If necessary, it would be used to prevent further damage, including many deaths.
His letter added: “Currently no changes are being considered in relation to other areas of the central belt. If that is still the case and confirmed later this week, these areas would remain at Level 3 for now.
“There are some signs in the progress data in the east of the central belt area, for example in Edinburgh and East Lothian, but it is likely that further consolidation of that progress will be required before it is safe, for public health reasons, to move them to level 2. “
He also suggested that Dundee could see further restrictions: “The data from the City of Dundee is also cause for concern, with a growing number of cases. Again, a final decision will be made based on the data that will be available in the next few days. In the meantime, consideration is being given to moving the City of Dundee to Level 3 under the new framework, broadly equivalent to the measures currently in place in the central belt. “
The letter stated that the numbers are moving in the right direction in some areas outside the central belt: “However, there are encouraging signs in the data, pointed out by the indicators, relative to some of the areas that are currently in the Level 2. These are Highland, Moray, Orkney, Shetland, and Western Isles. “
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