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More Leave voters than the rest have gone from Conservative to Labor since the last election, according to a major poll project suggesting that Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, has made some initial progress in bridging the Brexit gap.
A large poll of 7,000 people, designed to examine the political changes that have taken place since Labor’s disastrous outcome, found that the party was showing signs of winning over some of those who backed the Tories last year.
The Conservatives won the support of 70% of those who voted for the license and 20% of the voters for staying in the 2019 election. Labor won 16% of the absentee voters and 49% of the voters remain. The latest poll found that Conservatives now have the support of 63% of those who voted to leave and 21% of those who voted to stay. The Labor Party has the support of 20% of Leave voters and 53% of Remain voters.
Represents a shift toward Labor from Tories among 5.5-point franchise voters. The swing among the rest was only 1.5 points. Pollsters said a significant part of the swing was due to Leave voters turning against the Tories, now saying they didn’t know who they would vote for. About 18% of Conservative Party voters now say they don’t know how they will vote.
Meanwhile, the net move of Conservative voters to Labor since the election is roughly the same as the net move of Green voters and Liberal Democrats to Labor: about 500,000 voters in each group. It challenges suggestions that Starmer has greatly increased Labor voter turnout by winning Democratic and Green voters.
The study, released as part of a new Opinium e-book on the latest elections, comes with the Labor Party poised to back any Brexit deal that is agreed with the EU. The measure is causing unrest at all levels of the party. Starmer has suggested that he will order his deputies to back a deal in the “national interest,” making it clear that it is preferable to a no-deal outcome.
Chris Curtis, Senior Research Manager at Opinium, said: “This data will be particularly important for Labor to consider when deciding how to vote on a possible Brexit deal. The data shows that there are many Leave voters who are turning away from the Conservative Party, but have not yet been won over by Labor. The party will want to avoid alienating them with the decision it makes.
Several shadow cabinet figures, unions and prominent supporters want the party to abstain from voting on the Brexit deal, worried that backing a deal will prevent Labor from criticizing it in the future, while abstention will not. will stop your approval.
However, Starmer’s team has been meeting with party figures for weeks in an attempt to prepare the ground for voting in favor of a deal. There is also a feeling among Starmer’s team that Remain voters are not as focused on Brexit as they were before, after the last election.
The Opinium study found that Starmer is doing better among Leave voters than the Labor Party as a whole, suggesting that it may have the ability to reach more conservative voters who are increasingly dissatisfied with the party, but who have not yet made the leap to Labor. Starmer’s approval rating among Leave voters was -5, with 27% approval and 32% disapproval.
A huge advantage for conservatives among older voters in the last election also shows evidence of closure. The Conservatives held a 38-point advantage among those over 65. It is still high, but has closed at 26 points.
Labor has a marginal advantage among working-class voters, following suggestions that it was behind that group in the elections. He is now backed by 40% of the voters called “C2DE”, compared to 38% of the Conservatives. Meanwhile, conservatives lead among the wealthiest voters. It leads from 42% to 38% among “ABC1” voters. The gender gap that emerged in the last elections persists. Conservatives lead 43% to 35% among men, while Labor leads 41% to 38% among women.
Curtis said: “Labor’s vote share has increased under Keir Starmer’s leadership, with the party now just two points behind the Tories. But what’s more interesting are the trends underlying the return to the party. Labor is seeing the biggest shifts toward them among older voters and Leave voters, the key groups they have struggled with in recent years. This indicates that some of the main divisions that have dogged our policy in recent years may be beginning to fade.
“A key element appears to be handling the pandemic, as many Leave voters who supported the Conservatives last year think the government has done a poor job. Thus, the party only retains 70% of Leave voters who backed them, compared to 78% of its Remain voters. “
Opinium surveyed about 7,000 people online between November 27 and December 8.
