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During every presidential election, there is the possibility of a surprise in October, a time in the lead up to the November election when the race turns around.
But 2020 is special. This year, it is not just a surprise. It’s so much more – an unprecedented set of events that test the limits of the US Constitution and blow everything up.
Not only the result but the electoral process is questioned from this moment.
And some even ask if the survey can continue.
It’s an October cataclysm.
The first is the first. Since the bullets fired at Ronald Reagan in 1981 by a would-be assassin, a president had not faced as direct a deadly threat as the one now facing Donald Trump.
But what if the president is sick? Can’t get the job done? This is more of a gray area but it could be fixed. Vice President Mike Pence would take over and, if necessary, fight in the election.
It is more likely to survive. But it may not. It’s as simple as that.
That’s why one of the first signs that the president tested positive was the follow-up, by amateur aircraft watchers, of unusual movements of US military aircraft off the East Coast.
The ‘Doomsday’ planes of the United States Navy took off. These are used to detect incoming missiles and it has been suggested that they were in action in case America’s enemies decided to take advantage of the situation.
There is a plan when a president is incapacitated, and it seems that the first part of the plan went ahead.
But now what?
The 25th Amendment to the Constitution was passed after the assassination of President Kennedy. The amendment paves the way for power to be handed over to the vice president if the president dies or resigns.
So far very clear.
But what if the president is sick? Can’t get the job done? This is more of a gray area but could be fixed. Vice President Mike Pence would take over and, if necessary, fight in the election.
President George W Bush gave up power for a few hours under the 25th Amendment when he had a couple of minor operations.
He would not become president: Donald Trump would still have the right to return to office.
There is a precedent for this, in a much less dramatic way. President George W. Bush gave up power for a few hours under the 25th Amendment when he had a couple of minor operations.
But now it gets cloudy.
What if Donald Trump didn’t want to hand over power? What if he was as sick as Boris Johnson, or worse, but refused to give up control?
Here we are in unknown and dangerous territory. The 25th Amendment can be used by a vice president and Congress to strip a president of power.
It has only been considered once, when, toward the end of his tenure in the 1980s, some of his staff described President Reagan as “inattentive, distracted, lazy, and inept,” who suggested it was time to go.
His chief of staff had lunch with him. Ronnie told some jokes. They decided to do nothing. Would it be so relaxed this time, with this president and this president’s supporters? It is almost certainly not.
And here’s another bizarre twist: If Vice President Pence fell ill in the next month and couldn’t continue, next in line for the presidency is none other than Nancy Pelosi, the highest-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives. .
She hates Trump and he hates her. Chaos is too small a word for that result.
There is also the question of the campaign. The president has already canceled some rallies: he will meet with Joe Biden for another debate in two weeks.
The 25th Amendment to the Constitution was passed after the assassination of President Kennedy. The amendment paves the way for power to be handed over to the vice president if the president dies or resigns
There has to be a real question as to whether that can go ahead.
So could Election Day be delayed? Technically it could be, all the Constitution says is that the presidential term ends on January 20.
But a federal law says that the electoral college, the body that actually elects the president, must be selected “on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.”
That law could be changed, but Democrats are in charge in the House of Representatives, so it seems highly unlikely.
Most likely, the election will take place.
This is where we come to the politics of the president’s condition. As they fill out their ballots (millions are already voting by mail), they are reminded of presidential failure: a failure to protect the nation crowned by a failure to protect himself.
The policy of getting sick doesn’t look good for the president.
Or do they? What if Donald Trump contracts a mild illness and survives the virus? In that case, a man who admires ‘strong men’ could demonstrate what he would suggest were powers of recovery and fortitude that ‘sleepy Joe Biden’ could never match.
What if there’s a sympathy vote, like there was when Boris Johnson first got sick, and the president’s ratings really go up?
As a joker said yesterday in the New York Times: “This is a president who stared at an eclipse, got into a fight with the Pope, walked in front of the Queen. He has a way of dominating his circumstances. “
As always with Trump, he is depressed, but not out.
