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TJoe Biden’s election to the White House is likely to see Australia increasingly isolated as the world heads to net zero emissions, with rather fundamental implications for our economy.
Let’s take a look at what has happened in the last two months.
In September, the European Union proposed increasing its 2030 target from 40% to at least 55% reduction below 1990 levels in order to meet the net zero target for 2050 that it adopted in 2019. Critically , the EU has made climate action one of its top three Covid-19 response priorities, so that at least 30% of its multi-year budget and recovery fund is spent on achieving its increased emission reduction targets for 2030 and its climate neutrality target by 2050. These new targets for the EU27 would bring its domestic emissions very close to a Paris-compatible level of 1.5 ° C for the period to 2050. The UK has similar targets and ambitions to those of the EU27.
Soon after, President Xi Jinping announced that China would “aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,” the first time that China has recognized the need to achieve something close to zero CO2 emissions by mid-century. If you cover all greenhouse gas emissions, it would also be very close to what is needed by mid-century to be in line with the long-term goal of the Paris agreement. If this target covers only CO2, then China would need to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050 for this to be compatible with the Paris agreement.
Given that China is responsible for about a quarter of the world’s emissions, a shift to net zero by mid-century has very significant implications for global temperature, lowering the Climate Action Tracker’s end-of-century projections by 0.2- 0.3oC towards 2.4-2.5oC, compared to the previous projection of 2.7oC.
In October, both Japan and South Korea also announced net zero GHG targets by 2050. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced that Japan would target net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 with several specific measures, including a fundamental revision of its policy on coal. -Electric plants powered. In a major shift in Japan’s narrative, Suga emphasized the economic growth benefits of zero net commitment, whereas he had previously characterized it as a cost.
This was followed two days later by South Korean President Moon Jae-in, announcing his commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. replace coal-based power generation with renewable energy to create new markets, industries, and jobs.
Together, these four countries account for around 40% of global GHG emissions. There are also a large number of smaller countries with comparable net zero emission commitments that would bring total global coverage to about 48% of global emissions.
What is remarkable about all these announcements is that they were made in the absence of a commitment on the part of the United States and before any results of the American presidential election. China’s announcement in particular seems to reflect a geopolitical judgment by the Chinese government that they intend to move forward with ambitious climate goals even without the US.
Arguably, these moves by this set of countries alone will generate a major global move toward greater ambition and net zero by 2050.
So where does this leave Australia? These mid-century net zero moves by its major export markets create enormous challenges.
In 2019, China, South Korea and Japan accounted for 72% by value of Australia’s LNG and coal exports: 88% of Australia’s LNG exports; 75% of thermal coal exports; and 51% of metallurgical coal exports. It is noteworthy that none of these countries have focused on natural gas and all have mentioned renewables and other technologies, and all recognize that early action is needed on coal.
The election of Joe Biden could turn this big push into a landslide toward greater climate ambition. His election means that the United States will re-enter the Paris agreement, reverse the setbacks of the Trump administration and make a significant contribution to closing the ambition gap of the Paris agreement with a new goal for 2030. If it took the initiative to restart US action In line with its plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, Biden could substantially reduce US emissions by 2030.
If it is able to fully implement its proposed Energy and Climate Package, and continues to be supported by strong sub-national action in the US, the US could significantly reduce its emissions by 2030, narrowing the gap between where you are heading now and an emissions range consistent with the Paris Agreement for that year.
Even in the event of delays and challenges to federal action, efforts by state and local actors, such as the We Are Still In campaign, are expected to continue. A recent study estimated that more action by subnational players in the US could reduce emissions 37% below 2005 levels by 2030. Biden, as US president, may not have control of the Senate (although the vote count on this result is far from over, and may not be resolved until January), but there are solutions.
Biden also has a net zero goal for 2050, which will put the US close to an emissions pathway consistent with the Paris agreement. This would further reduce the projected warming for 2100 by about 0.1 ° C, and further if the United States took action on scale negative emissions beyond 2050.
Therefore, the EU, China, Japan, South Korea and the US, about two-thirds of the world economy, about half of global emissions and about 75% of our fossil fuel export markets, will have zero net targets for 2050 or soon after. This is a massive change.
Let there be no misunderstanding about what this means. Going to net zero essentially means phasing out coal, gas and oil, with markets roughly halved by 2030. This is a seismic shift for Australia and it means that demand for our coal is very likely and gas decline at least as fast as it has risen in recent decades.
It would hardly be a strategy for Australia to follow the example of Poland and simply start storing coal in warehouses. Diplomatically, Australia will find itself increasingly isolated, including in its own region and, in particular, with its neighbors close to the Pacific islands, not to mention the two superpowers, China and the United States.
Australia needs a forward-thinking strategy to harness its enormous natural advantages in renewable energy and essential resources for the low-carbon and zero-carbon transition, and to provide a just transition for communities and workforce affected by the rapidly shrinking markets on which they have so far depended.
There is no time to waste hesitating, denying and obfuscating.
• Bill Hare, physicist and climate scientist, is the managing director of Climate Analytics
