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The Covid election has been called, with stability the order of the day.
But it has turned into the strangest general election campaign New Zealanders have ever seen, with most of the country desperate for it to end and something akin to normalcy to resume in a deeply abnormal year.
After a month of delay caused by the coronavirus outbreak in Auckland, the country’s largest city, New Zealanders will finally head to the voting booths on Saturday.
But with a record one million people already casting their early vote, even voting day will be moderate.
The lack of enthusiasm and the quiet atmosphere have a lot to do with the overwhelming success of Covid and the current Jacinda Ardern in managing the pandemic. For many struggling with job loss and uncertainty, elections are an unwanted speed bump that prevents them from quickly returning to their former lives.
For months now, opinion polls have shown that the Labor Party is ahead of the opposition National Party, and is currently leading by 15 points at 46%, with Ardern also leading the polls as the preferred prime minister.
National, which has had three leaders in six months, is faltering, with even the indomitable Judith Collins, nicknamed Crusher Collins, failing to turn on, committing repeated and bizarre missteps, including criticizing obese people for lack of responsibility. staff and plant campaign supporters on your walks. .
“I’m very aware that I’m not going to be able to get out, and ‘Jacinda’ Jacinda Ardern,” Collins said. “I can be someone [with] a very wicked and mischievous sense of humor and sometimes gets me into trouble. In fact, it causes me a lot of trouble. “
Ardern, meanwhile, has remained optimistic throughout. Political analysts have criticized his party for its confusing language, its inability to deliver a clear mandate, and its vague Covid recovery plan.
But Ardern’s personal popularity has kept his party at record highs in the polls, and after ruling through a series of major disasters, he has nothing left to convince.
Dr Jennifer Lees-Marshment, an expert in elections and political communication at the University of Auckland, said: “It’s a really, really strange, very strange choice. When you have elections in the middle of a global crisis, it is very difficult for the public and politicians to worry about anything else. “
The politics of kindness
When New Zealand closed its borders in mid-March and went into lockdown shortly thereafter, Ardern urged New Zealanders to “be nice” to each other. “Check your neighbors,” he said. “Call your grandmother.”
There have been fewer than 2,000 Covid infections in New Zealand and only 25 deaths. The country’s success in managing the virus has been celebrated by the World Health Organization, among others, and Ardern’s unflappable leadership has endeared her even among those who would normally vote for National.
Political analysts say that in times of uncertainty, voters cling to the status quo, and right now, Ardern’s policy of kindness and compassion is the support New Zealanders seek like a jerk.
“I think the election will come down to trust, and that, of course, favors the sitting prime minister,” said Carl Ebbers, a small businessman from Auckland. “He’s done so well with … all these emergencies we’ve had.”
Commentators say it seems like the last two years of New Zealand politics have been forgotten, and the only thing that counts voters is the last nine months.
Collins said he “doesn’t believe the polls” and accused Ardern of breaking his promises and “doing nonsense.” He said the prime minister would offer voters only “love and a hug” in the wake of the global pandemic, while she would offer them “hope and a job,” promising a stronger economic response.
Some political analysts agree that Labor is heading for a second term thanks to Ardern’s worldwide fame.
But with Collins repeatedly making public mistakes, the National Party’s chances of ruling are shrinking by the day.
Major Labor Party mistakes, such as the KiwiBuild fiasco (a missed goal to build 100,000 homes in 10 years), the failure to implement a capital gains tax, and rising levels of social deprivation seem to have faded from consciousness. public. When raised by the National Party, the criticism seems to have had little effect.
For many political observers, the question is no longer whether Labor and Ardern will win on October 17, but whether they can obtain an absolute majority that allows them to govern alone, something that the design of the nation’s electoral system was intended to avoid.
“It is a really unusual choice; the background is just weird, “says political commentator Morgan Godfery. “I can’t wait until it’s over. I’m not necessarily a pro-Labor person per se, but I just want them to come back for the simple reason that they are in the best position to rule the country during a global pandemic. “
While swinging Labor and nationals can be accused of disunity, the 2020 elections are far less political than at any time in history.
More than new hospitals, a wealth tax or cleaner rivers, New Zealanders want to feel safe in a time of global uncertainty. And a leader who has been nominated twice for the Nobel Peace Prize is certainly comforting.
Ben Thomas, a public relations consultant and former national government staff member, said: “I don’t think the average voter who has gone from national to Labor is thinking about science. [of Covid-19]. They think Jacinda is making good decisions and taking care of us. “
