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Speculation continues to mount that Ronald Koeman is looking to sign Gini Wijnaldum as he looks to renew Barcelona.
Liverpool’s The number five contributed memorably to the downfall of the Catalan giants by scoring two goals in the Reds’ fight to win the Champions League semi-final in 2018/19, and now he could be involved in helping to rebuild them.
As the Dutchman only has 12 months left on his current contract with Liverpool, the club will certainly consider any decent offer that comes their way. No matter how important a player is to a team, every man has his price. It is the nature of football.
And make no mistake about it, Wijnaldum is very important to Liverpool. He played more league minutes than any midfielder for any of the Premier League’s six big clubs last season.
Look at the five big leagues in Europe, and only 21 midfielders in total saw more pitching time than Wijnaldum in 2019/20. With the exception of Casemiro at Real Madrid, none of the group with the most minutes played for a club as big as Liverpool.
Rumors have abounded all summer that Reds seek to sign Thiago Alcantara from Bayern Munich. That was the case even before Wijnaldum’s possible departure was in frame, and speculation will only get more rampant if the Dutchman ends his four-year stint at Anfield.
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In terms of durability, Thiago cannot compete with Wijnaldum. Since the start of the 2016/17 season, the Spaniard has accumulated 7,717 league minutes for the perennial German champions, while Wijnaldum has broken the 11,000-minute barrier for the Reds.
But when both men take the field, they appear to be remarkably similar players in many ways. One of the main criticisms of Wijnaldum, from people who do not pay attention to what his role in the team really is, is that he does not provide assistance to his teammates.
Although it is not that Thiago offers too much here. In fact, none of the players assisted a league goal in 2019/20. Their underlying creative numbers have also been very similar.
We can assess the value of the opportunities a player creates by looking at the expected assists. Like the more well-known expected goals, it is simply a system of assigning a value to an opportunity based on the historical probability that a similar opportunity will convert.
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Over the past four seasons, Wijnaldum has averaged 0.08 expected assists for every 90 minutes spent on the court in the league (via Understat). Thiago’s figure is higher, but at 0.12 it’s easy to see why he doesn’t help his colleagues too often either.
They have offered a similar level of goal threat since Wijnaldum also signed for the Reds from Newcastle United. Wijnaldum has taken slightly more shots, averaging 1.33 to 90 compared to 1.19, but it is Thiago who has had the best chances. The Bayern player has averaged 0.14 expected goals every 90 minutes, which is a fraction ahead of Wijnaldum’s count of 0.12.
The similarities continue when looking at his defensive contributions. The player analysis website Smarterscout he gave Wijnaldum a score of 74 for quality defense last season (on a scale of zero to 99), and 90 for off-possession running games. They rated Thiago 82 and 92 respectively for those aspects of the game, so better, but not much different.
The two players even pressure opponents at a similar rate. StatsBomb data for the last three seasons (via FBRef.com) shows that Wijnaldum averaged 15.4 pressures every 90 minutes, while his Bayern counterpart registered 15.6.
Given that much of what the players offer is very similar apart from aptitude and availability, Liverpool could theoretically replace one for another without too much trouble. The conclusion of the agreements could be the most complicated part of the whole process.
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