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The only certainty is that the future of travel is uncertain.
Some experts predict that things will not return to normal for two to three years, and that many companies will close their businesses in the next six months.
We hope this is not the case, but we will all have to get used to a whole new travel landscape once the restrictions are lifted. So how will it look? Here we explore some of the possibilities.
New rules at airports
At airports, passengers can see a faster security process and make their bags ‘sani-tagged’
Heathrow Airport has closed one of its two runways and two of its terminals. The number of passengers in March fell 52 percent year-on-year to 3.1 million, and the April figure is expected to drop 90 percent or more from the usual numbers.
Meanwhile, in Gatwick, 90 percent of staff have been suspended and authorities hope it can take four years for the number of passengers to recover. BA this week even told staff that she cannot return to Gatwick after the pandemic passes.
According to other travel analysts, OAG, other airports around the world have also shrunk, with global flight numbers falling 59.8 percent between December and April. But there is some good news …
What could happen:
- Queues for boarding with a space of two meters. Passengers can receive text messages by knocking on doors to avoid overcrowding.
- Previous check-in times. Showing up four hours before flights could be commonplace.
- Extensive Covid-19 passenger test. Already in Dubai, Emirates is conducting blood tests. At Hong Kong International, tests are conducted with results taking up to 12 hours. This week Heathrow chief John Holland-Kaye called on the government to establish a common international standard for aviation health screening.
Passengers have blood tests done before boarding an Emirates flight at Dubai airport last month
- Health certificates. Thai authorities already require that documents showing that visitors “do not pose a risk of infection” be issued no more than 72 hours before landing.
- Insurance certificates could also enter; Thailand requires Covid-19 coverage for up to £ 80,000.
- Catwalks to airplanes with desin sanitizing tunnels ’, where passengers are checked and bags are labeled with sanit after electrostatic cleaning or UV disinfection.
- More facial recognition systems and fewer passport checks, which could speed up immigration.
- More sophisticated security machines that don’t require you to remove laptops or liquids.
What we think:
The new procedures are likely to result in slower progress through airports, although showing up four hours before flights sounds excessive. Medical exams and health certificates are possible.
There is a chance that once the systems are well established, which can take years, movements could be smoother than ever.
In the air
On planes, the middle seats can be left empty or reversed
Currently, 64 percent of the world’s passenger planes are grounded, which is nearly 17,000 planes.
This week Eurocontrol, which coordinates European air traffic, showed that flights in Britain were down 91 percent from last year.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warns that the airline industry worldwide will lose £ 250 billion this year, an annual drop of 55 percent with more than 25 million jobs at risk.
British Airways alone says that up to 12,000 employees can be laid off, with 1,100 pilots to go, and Ryanair has just announced 3,000 job cuts.
Meanwhile, Virgin Australia and Air Mauritius have sunk, and now their eyes are on Virgin Atlantic.
What could happen:
- Fewer flights as airlines fail, resulting in higher fares.
- The intermediate seats were left empty or full but back.
- Cabins with dedicated on-board cleaners or “sani-janitors”.
- Passenger face masks as standard, as already adopted by Lufthansa and Wizz Air.
- Cabin crew with masks and gloves.
- Disinfecting wipes delivered free to passengers.
- Seats with plastic “hoods”.
Seats with plastic hoods around them could become common on flights
- Alcohol is not served on flights.
- There are no hot meals. Instead, sandwich bags to avoid interaction.
- Reductions in carry-on baggage allowances to prevent people from approaching others to overhead containers.
- The last rows of the plane were left empty for passengers with Covid-19 symptoms. China has already introduced it.
What we think:
Mandatory masks seem sensible. Meals dipped with sandwiches are likely. The planes will also be impeccable. Social distancing by keeping intermediate seats empty will be uneconomical and unhelpful, since keeping passengers two meters away would require 26 inexpensive seats for every four passengers, experts say. Ticket prices would skyrocket.
As they are, fares could rise above pre-crisis levels as airlines struggle: The “golden age” of low-cost tickets may be over, although easyJet and Ryanair appear to have enough cash reserves to weather the storm.
It took three years for the industry to recover after the 2008 collapse.
Back on track?
Social distancing measures could be introduced in the train aisles with passengers who have alternative seats on long distance trips.
The trains are virtually empty due to the blockade, although they still operate to provide transportation for key workers and volunteers.
Hours have been reduced. Train lines in the UK and in Europe (SNCF and Trenitalia) have quickly offered refunds, according to thetrainline.com.
UK franchised rail companies such as Avanti West Coast and Great Western Railway have been effectively nationalized by the Department for Transport until the fall. Smaller UK operators, such as Hull Trains and Grand Central Rail, which are not receiving aid, have suspended train services.
What could happen:
- Passenger numbers could decrease by as much as a quarter, as fewer people move through the post-work blockade from home.
- Social distancing measures introduced in the train aisles.
- Those on the commuter trains may still be in close contact.
- Technology can be incorporated to count passengers.
- On long-distance trains, passengers can receive alternative seats.
What we think:
A requirement to wear masks is possible, but given the crowds on the platforms and the number of passengers at peak hours, social distancing may prove impossible, experts say. Investment is needed for more trains, but isn’t it always?
In high sea
To attract passengers back to cruise ships, health certificates may be required while more cleaning staff can be hired
Before the coronavirus crisis, the global cruise industry was booming. It was worth more than £ 93 billion annually, supporting 891,000 jobs, with more than 21 million passengers. Now the picture is quite different, with most ships docked and ports closed.
The story of Princess Diamond passengers quarantined in Yokohama in Japan in February did not help the image of the industry.
What could happen:
- Attractive offers to attract passengers back to cruise ships.
- Fewer stopping options as countries introduce travel bans.
- Pre-shipment verifications and health certificates are required.
- Social distance on board.
- Buffets replaced by a food service or a canteen.
- More space for medical rooms.
What we think:
Pre-shipment health checks or requirements to obtain current health certificates seem inevitable. Just like on airplanes, expect a new generation of “sani-janitor” cleaning staff.
Entry restrictions to some countries may make travel less varied. But bargains are expected as trips departing from the UK and European river cruises are likely to be popular as they do not require flights.
Insurance impact
Travel insurance premiums could be much higher, especially when the coronavirus is covered and applicants are elderly.
Most travel insurance companies no longer offer Covid-19 coverage. Tourists with existing policies may be covered, but should check with their insurer.
Most insurers are not issuing any new policies; the few that do, including Saga, Allianz Assistance, and Columbus Direct, will not cover the coronavirus. The industry expects 400,000 claims at a cost of £ 275 million for Covid-19 cancellations.
What could happen:
- Much higher premiums, especially when the coronavirus is covered and applicants are elderly.
- Difficulty finding insurance.
What we think:
Insurance companies will need to recoup losses. They may be wary of offering coronavirus coverage until a vaccine is found. It may take some time for the world of travel insurance to stabilize. This will be especially true after Brexit, when reciprocal coverage is extended within the EU.
Go abroad
When going on vacation abroad, social distancing could be de rigueur worldwide
Resorts around the world are empty, and no one knows how long it will be until tourism begins again.
What could happen:
- Social distancing will become the norm throughout the world, some have even suggested plastic booths in restaurants and beaches for sunbeds and umbrellas.
- Strict limits on attractions.
- The phenomenon of “overtourism” in places like Venice, Barcelona and Dubrovnik will diminish.
- The tourist cities will have much more “local feeling”.
- Some destinations may not want tourists.
- 14-day quarantine for foreign visitors, effectively ending tourism in some places.
What we think:
There will be a rebound, eventually.
Our hard-earned vacations are precious and the desire to explore the world will be stronger than ever.
