[ad_1]
Is Thursday’s EU summit the defining moment for Brexit negotiations?
Boris Johnson said on September 7 that if there was a lack of agreement by the time EU leaders meet in Brussels on October 15, then he couldn’t see any hope of an agreement at all, and both parties should at that time. ” accept that and act on “.
That day has come. There’s no deal. Johnson clearly has a decision to make, but his chief negotiator, David Frost, will not advise him to withdraw. Sources close to the negotiation say Frost believes a deal is still possible in the coming weeks. A decision from the prime minister is expected on Friday, once EU leaders have given their assessment of the negotiations.
The UK negotiating team complains that the “intensive” talks in recent weeks have not really been that intense. They are looking for leaders to support daily negotiations with both parties by committing ink on paper to a joint legal text.
They also want to avoid a Salzburg moment for Johnson. Theresa May was humiliated by her fellow leaders during a summit in the Austrian city when they lined up to trash her proposals. Downing Street is sensitive to atmosphere.
What is likely to happen?
Johnson is unlikely to ignore Frost, who is a trusted confidant. More conversations can be expected. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian even suggested this week that the next EU summit, on November 15, could be the next target date for a deal.
Certainly there is some skepticism in Brussels that a couple more weeks, until the end of October, will provide enough time to bridge the gaps between the two parties.
Frost will tell Johnson that there is a lot to sign on a variety of issues, spanning police cooperation, aviation, road transport, social security coordination, and the UK’s access to EU programs, such as its Horizon Europe research and innovation plan. .
The UK negotiator believes the deal will be slimmer than it should be, with less win-win cooperation. The EU has rejected Britain’s demands for mutual recognition agreements, for example, which would allow UK-approved products to be sold in EU member states without the need for Brussels regulators to give their approval.
But despite all the talk that the UK thrives on a trade relationship with the EU on ‘Australian terms’, in other words a no-deal outcome, Frost evidently believes there will be enough in the deal to be worth the effort. pain.
What are the gaps?
There are three hurdles, the first of which is how to decide the EU’s future access to British fishing waters. The EU has been insisting on the status quo, with catch quotas that are kept in line with the common fisheries policy. However, there are signs of some movement. While France insists there is no room to negotiate deals in the Channel, where French fishermen catch 84% of the cod quota, there appears to be more flexibility in the Celtic and Scottish seas. But the EU would cut British quotas in European waters to make up for the losses.
The second issue, more important to many Member States than fishing, is the so-called level playing field provisions, which the EU wants to ensure that neither party can undermine the rules or over-subsidize parts of the economy to give their companies a chance. competitive advantage in the economy. market.
Here again, there is movement. The UK has accepted the non-regression of environmental, social and labor standards as they are at the end of the transition period. The EU wants more. It wants that baseline to rise over time as Brussels develops its standards. It is hard to sell for the British, who will not want to be bound by EU law. The two parties are looking for other mutually satisfactory solutions. A senior diplomat compared the process to trying to get a child to eat his vegetables. “What do you do? Do you force him to come in? The other option is to try to find a way to fix the problem and mix it with bananas. But in the end, it’s the same. He or she will eat their vegetables.”
The other level playing field is state aid or control of national subsidies. The two parties are drafting principles for inclusion in the agreement that would shape both parties’ state aid rule book. The UK is concerned that Brussels wants fairly extensive rules, with many sectoral provisions. But the talks continue. Downing Street appears ready to establish an independent regulator for state aid, which has been a key EU demand.
And finally …
There is the question of governance: how will one party keep the other’s word. The EU wants to be able to suspend parts of the trade and security deal if the UK breaches an obligation in any part of the deal. Both parties would accept binding rulings from a new body. The UK says it will talk about this, but not until all other contentious areas develop.
