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India says it is “calibrating” its vaccine exports in an attempt to balance growing domestic demand with international orders, raising questions about the Serum Institute’s ability to meet its global commitments.
New Delhi has suspended exports, potentially for weeks, as it extends its vaccination campaign to Indians aged 45 and over on April 1, but insists it has not banned drug shipments.
Harsh Vardhan, India’s health minister, said on Friday that the government planned to further expand vaccination eligibility in the “near future” as the country struggled to contain a second wave of increasingly accelerating infections.
The Narendra Modi government recently ordered 100 million doses of the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine from the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer and leading supplier of Covax, taking all the doses the company will produce in the coming weeks.
The Serum Institute is producing more than 70 million doses a month, or 2.4 million a day, although it has plans to expand production to 100 million doses a month in May. But if India’s demand for vaccines shoots up to 5 million a day as planned, it would have a hard time meeting its international orders.
“We had stated that taking into account the national requirements of the phased rollout, India will continue to supply Covid-19 vaccines to partner countries over the coming weeks and months in a phased manner,” said a government official.
“Given our current manufacturing capacity and the requirements of national vaccination programs, it may be necessary to calibrate supply schedules from time to time,” the official said. “We have not imposed any ban on vaccine exports, unlike many other countries.”
New Delhi suspended exports after a wave of what critics described as “vaccine nationalism.” The EU and Britain have squabbled over supplies, while Italy blocked the export of 250,000 doses of the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia in early March.
The suspension comes a few weeks after the Serum Institute warned Brazil that a fire at its plant in January would cause delays in shipments of injections from AstraZeneca.
In a letter dated March 4 to Fiocruz, a Brazilian public health institution, the director of the Serum Institute, Adar Poonawalla, wrote that “a fire in one of our buildings has hampered the expansion of our monthly manufacturing output.” He added: “We ask for your understanding that in these circumstances supply cannot be guaranteed in the foreseeable months due to this force majeure.”
At the time, the company said the fire killed five workers and would not affect the production of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
India is accelerating its vaccination campaign as new infections rise across the country of 1.4 billion people, threatening a fragile economic recovery with cities reimposing curfews and closing schools.
The commercial capital of Mumbai reported 5,185 new cases on Wednesday, the highest increase in a single day since the start of the pandemic.
Experts said the country had the capacity to inoculate 5 million people a day, but far fewer had come forward for vaccination in the early stages of the deployment, which was limited to front-line workers, people over 60 and those over 45 with comorbidities.
However, demand for the vaccine is expected to increase significantly when younger adults arrive for the vaccine with elderly relatives in tow. By mid-April, more people are expected to return for their second dose, putting pressure on supplies.
“We will see how the launch goes. Will there be a significant amount of demand? If that happens, will there be a vaccine shortage even in India? “said Anant Bhan of Yenepoya University.” India will have to find a balance between domestic needs and exports. “
Bhan said India would likely do everything it can to meet its international commitments to bolster its reputation as a pharmaceutical powerhouse. “For India, this is a major diplomatic effort,” he said, “if India wants to be a leader in global health equity, then this is an opportunity to create that impact.”
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The Serum Institute has supplied the majority of the 55 million doses administered in India, where absorption of the Bharat Biotech vaccine, the only other injection authorized for emergency use, has been moderate.
New Delhi has yet to approve other vaccines, including Russia’s Sputnik V, which has agreements with several Indian manufacturers to produce millions of doses.
India has exported 60 million vaccines to more than 70 countries. Its last export to South Sudan under the Covax facility was delivered on Thursday.
“Solidarity with the youngest nation in Africa,” Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar wrote on Twitter. “South Sudan receives Made in India vaccines”.
