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The threat levels are designed to give a broad indication of the probability of a terrorist attack.
There are five different threat levels, and the Joint Terrorism Analysis Center (JTAC) is responsible for deciding at which level the UK should sit.
JTAC is based at MI5 headquarters in London
The five levels of terrorist threat are:
Low – an attack is very unlikely
Moderate – an attack is possible, but not likely
Substantial – an attack is likely
Serious – An attack is very likely. This is the current UK level.
Critical – an attack is very likely to occur in the near future
JTAC is based at MI5 headquarters in London and is made up of representatives from 16 government departments and agencies.
It brings together counter-terrorism experts from the police, government, and security agencies.
JTAC also works especially closely with MI5’s international counter-terrorism arm, which handles investigations into terrorist activities in the UK.
In deciding the UK threat level, JTAC considers:
- The level and nature of current terrorist activity, compared to events in other countries and previous attacks.
- What is known about the capabilities of the terrorists in question and the method they may use based on previous attacks or intelligence.
- The general objectives of the terrorists and the ways they can achieve them, including the type of objectives they would consider attacking
- How close an attack could be to bearing fruit.
Before Tuesday’s move to raise the threat level to “serious”, the UK threat level had been “substantial” since November last year.
This was the first time it was lowered from “severe” in five years.
The “critical” level was last reached in September 2017, following the bomb attack on the Parsons Green train.
A separate threat level is provided for Northern Ireland-related terrorism in Northern Ireland.
This is also “severe”.
