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meIt was at the height of the blockade of Scotland that it occurred to Henry most deeply that the union was obsolete. A traditional Labor voter in his 40s from a trade union family saw the baffling and baffling news of the pandemic scroll across his television screen and realized that UK ties “no longer seemed fit for purpose. “.
As the crisis progressed, Henry says, he was “dismayed by the arrogance of the Westminster elite, particularly the behavior of Dominic Cummings.” Compare this with the conduct of Scotland’s Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon. “I’ve never been a supporter of the SNP or a great advocate for Sturgeon, but when he appeared at those daily briefings there was an honesty that shone through. I am not naive, I know how politicians operate, but I felt that she was displaying realistic empathy. ”She also felt that Sturgeon, unlike Boris Johnson, was in command.
Henry is not a nationalist convert and, in fact, states that it is a “certainty” that he would not vote for the SNP in an independent Scotland. But now he will vote for that state to come into being. “And the reason I would vote yes is because I really feel like it’s time for us to move on.”
In part, this is because he feels that constitutional issues have dominated the political agenda in Scotland for far too long. As a teacher, you know that there are other topics that deserve attention. “But other parties cannot escape the shadow of independence, so let’s see what’s next.”
Partly it’s a hoax, to see what the SNP comes up with when it can no longer blame Westminster. “Independence scares me,” he admits, “but the current political stalemate is worse.”
YouGov’s poll for the Times last month put support for independence at 53%, two points higher than in January, excluding “don’t know,” and in August a Panelbase poll for Business for Scotland found 45% answered no to the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, reversing the result of the 2014 referendum.
The surge in support for independence is an old story, jokes John Curtice, the veteran analyst and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, before acknowledging that although a four-point lead may not qualify as an increase, this is the one. first time in Scottish polls. history that has been consistently ahead for an extended period of time.
It may stray a bit from the compelling proportions that many in the pro-independence camp believe they must achieve to avoid a Brexit-style divide, but it has nevertheless reportedly caused concern at the Westminster cabinet table. Especially since, as Curtice explains, the character of those who have changed in the last six months is different from those who were prompted to reconsider independence after the 2016 EU referendum. “This is no longer a Brexit history, ”he says.
After the Brexit vote, there was some balance between Scots who voted to stay and then went from no to yes on independence, and those who were disenchanted abandoned voters who abandoned their nationalist sympathies. With so many voters remaining in Scotland, the arithmetic brought the country to 50/50 in January, Curtice says. “But since then, the increase in support for independence has been among voters who stay and leave.”
He explains: “Firstly, the coronavirus is the single most important public policy the return has had to deal with since 1999. Second, there is a huge difference in public perception of how well the Scottish government has handled it. and the UK: 70-75% I think Nicola Sturgeon is doing it brilliantly, it’s pretty much the opposite for Boris and more importantly, this isn’t just yes voters saying, ‘Nicola walks on Water’.
“Three, there are a couple of polls asking, ‘Do you think the coronavirus would have been handled better or worse if Scotland were an independent country?’ The crucial contrast is that only 4% of those who voted in favor in 2014 think it would have been handled worse under independence, while 20% of those who voted do not say it would have been handled better ”.
Speaking to those who have changed their minds in the past six months, as well as the activists who greet them in virtual yes centers, it is surprising how often Sturgeon’s daily reports are mentioned. Last Thursday, the BBC announced that it would stop its live television broadcasts of the briefings, prompting a furious dispute and accusations that the corporation capitulated to union demands to stop “SNP party political broadcasts.”
As Maggie Lennon of Non-Aligned Women for Independence says: “Women who voted no because they felt they weren’t getting enough information, especially about the economy, have now seen a woman ready to stand up every day and answer questions. “.
The shift in the demographic profile of those moving to yes has been ongoing since 2016, says Ailsa Henderson, professor of political science at the University of Edinburgh and director of the Scottish Election Study. “Women are over-represented, particularly after having voted to stay, while the age of yes-supporters has increased. The most recent polls found that one third of Labor voters would vote in favor. “
Henderson notes that the perception that the SNP government is competent is not new, but what is different about the pandemic is that the UK and the Scottish government are comparable on exactly the same issue, as events unfold. “The policy difference may not be that surprising, but the management has been very different.”
Also, people’s understanding of risk has fundamentally changed. “Those with a higher appetite for risk were more likely to vote up in 2014, but if the status quo doesn’t appear to be a safe haven, that risk argument cannot be similarly executed.”
For Donald Macpherson, a semi-retired former CEO of a large manufacturing company living in Edinburgh, the change itself has been an incremental process. Although his upbringing was “trade unionist to the core”, his father was an army chaplain, saying he has been “uncomfortable for some time over the growing gap between Scottish and British politics.”
It is the practical lessons of the pandemic that have solidified his views on independence. “I think it has helped me and others see that this is proof positive that independence could work,” he says.
“I am quite confirmed now. What I have seen of how Scotland can cope with the pressure has only inclined me more towards independence. “
* Some names have been changed
