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1) Will the clash of styles lead to a high score game?
There’s something irresistible about this one, and it’s not just the historic glamor of Manchester United against Leeds United. Sunday’s game is a battle between the best strategist against the non-tactician; the idealist versus the swimmer; the ultra-choreographed high tempo Leeds against the lazy, floating Man Utd.
Unbelievably, Man Utd becomes serious title contenders if he wins this one, but that has more to do with the uniqueness of this season and the quality of Man Utd’s individual players than anything Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is doing tactically. He has a decent plan to sit back and fight back when playing against the big teams, but against everyone else he is alarmingly off the cuff.
However, in such a grueling campaign for everyone, Man Utd has the individual quality to create late-game chances despite his shortcomings, hence the number of comebacks and wins snatched in wild and high-scoring games.
This should be another one of those. Leeds will push and think more than their hosts, but the difference in quality could eventually show. It will be end-to-end, no doubt, with both sides unable to resist allowing the match to stretch as spaces for quick breaks emerge.
2) Will Man Utd’s counters be too much for Leeds?
Some of Man Utd’s counterattacks against Sheffield United it was excellent, and since Chris Wilder’s side is supposed to be one of the toughest to face, Marcelo Bielsa might be a bit concerned. Leeds will press high, empty the central midfield as they go, and encourage the wings to overlap.
All of those things should give Man Utd a chance to counter at high speed, particularly in the last 30 minutes of the match. Bielsa has a history of fatigue that disrupts his team’s campaigns, and as we move into the busy Christmas schedule, chances are high that this will start at Old Trafford on Sunday.
What’s more, the nature of the Leeds organization and the high pressure are likely to force Man Utd to back down, accidentally giving Ole Gunnar Solskjaer precisely the territorial balance he wants. They are only consistent when they are allowed to step back and wait for opportunities to arise.
3) Or can Leeds overload the flanks behind Rashford and Greenwood?
One of the highlights of Bielsa’s tactic is overloading the wide areas, with central and wing midfielders joining the wingers to create flank triangles that easily outmaneuver the opponent. Man Utd could be particularly susceptible to this if he continues with the more frequently used 4-2-3-1 formation.
Marcus Rashford and Mason Greenwood remain largely at the top of the field alongside Anthony Martial, and if Bruno Fernandes is at number ten, that could leave the wingers with very little additional support. It’s unlikely that Fred or Scott McTominay will communicate properly to help Luke Shaw or Aaron Wan-Bissaka when Leeds adopts this tactic.
Jack Harrison and Raphinha are in excellent shape and it is easy to imagine both players running sideways for Man Utd. Plus, if Rodrigo starts again to the right of central midfield, Shaw could be in big trouble. He is always the most vulnerable member of Solskjaer’s rear four, and with no additional bodies around him, he faces being pulled out of position.
4) Does the Leeds shape give Fernandes and Pogba the opportunity to create crossover scenarios?
Leeds’ two main flaws coincide with areas of strength in Man Utd. Bielsa’s overload of the flanks, coupled with his desire for multiple riders to get ahead at halftime, means that central midfield is often emptied. It’s a high-risk strategy that has so far gone awry against the best attackers in the league (Liverpool scored four; Chelsea scored three).
Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba should have time and space with the ball in the middle of the park, which is always a concern for opponents, especially given that Pogba was very effective in the win over Sheffield United in the middle of the week. Should the Frenchman repeat that performance, he can work with Fernandes to quickly switch the ball to the channels.
Each of Leeds’ last five goals has come from centers into the box. Playing with such offensive defenses has its downside, and all too often center-backs seem unable to keep up with opposing forwards. Get Rashford and Greenwood to the corner of the penalty area and Leeds is in trouble.
5) Or will Phillips be decisive when Leeds advance?
On the other hand, Man Utd’s poor form and inexplicably vague tactics should not be underestimated. The most likely outcome remains that for long stretches they veered into a half-decompressed block, leaving gaps between the lines and behind, and consequently the speed and fluidity of the Leeds one-twos can unlock them.
Leeds are at their best against the passive midblocks, when opportunities arise for Kalvin Phillip to suddenly hit a diagonal and engage with that rush of midfield running backs. It seems unlikely that Fernandes will be directed to stay close to Philips. The England international should ultimately become the key player in the game.
Alex Keble Hosts Premier League Pre-Match Tactics Program on twitch.tv/EPLtactics
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