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Covid-19 is once again on the rise in the Liverpool city region, with the latest figures and analysis showing a worrying spread of the virus.
Having struggled to reduce infection rates, it now appears that the impact of the relaxed restrictions is being felt, with levels rising rapidly in most counties.
These are the most recent infection rates for the city region and each of its districts, with absolute numbers of cases in parentheses:
City Region – 132.8 (2,071)
Halton – 166.9 (216)
Knowsley – 129.3 (195)
Liverpool – 143.6 (715)
St Helens – 135.7 (245)
Sefton – 112.5 (311)
Wirral – 120.1 (389)
While Halton has the highest current rates, Liverpool is now seeing an average of 100 new Covid-19 cases each day.
Increase
To get an idea of how the situation is getting worse, it is important to look at the weekly increases.
Below are the percentage increases in the number of cases in each municipality through the end of last week.
Halton: 45.9% increase
Knowsley: 30% increase
Liverpool: 46.2% increase
St Helens: 15.6% increase
Sefton: 62.8% increase
Wirral: 62.8% increase
As you can see, there has been a significant acceleration in all city districts since last week, with St Helens being the least affected, but still growing.
Massive tests?
It is important to note that massive and asymptomatic tests have recently been implemented in all districts of the city region (following the Liverpool pilot plan in November).
There could be some impact of the new testing regimes on the increasing number, with the location of more asymptomatic cases.
However, even when the number of cases found using mass testing centers is discounted, the overall numbers continue to rise.
In Liverpool, for example, data shows that in the most recent 7-day period, 712 confirmed cases were located, of which only 177 were detected by lateral flow testing at mass testing centers.
More tests?
Another problem people can point to is that there are potentially more people getting tested because of the additional facilities and because they want to feel more secure with family at Christmas.
This may well be the case, but when we look at the data for Liverpool, we can see that the positivity rating for the city has increased from 2.2% to 5.2% in one week.
The positivity rate, simply put, is the total number of positive tests out of all those performed in the last 7 days.
An increase in this number shows that there are simply more viruses around that cannot be ruled out due to more testing being done.
Level 2 impact
So we are left with the probability that we are now seeing the impact of the relaxed restrictions that went into effect on December 2.
When you look at the percentage increases between December 2 and December 18, it is pretty clear what is happening.
In Liverpool, virus cases have risen 61.6% in that time, in Halton it is 43.2% while that of Sefton is 48.5%.
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Wirral, which had reduced its numbers to the lowest in the region, has seen an alarming 128% increase in virus cases.
Again, some of these numbers can be attributed to the new asymptomatic tests, but certainly not all.
The unfortunate reality is that the virus is on the rise again throughout the city region.
Responding to the latest increase in cases, Liverpool Council health cabinet member Cllr Paul Brant said: “Covid rates have risen again in Liverpool, reaching 143 per 100,000.
“If this increase continues, the City will be at Level 3, and maybe higher. Remember that the virus does not take away Christmas. Stay safe and remember to distance yourself socially, wear a mask and wash your hands.”
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