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Some hospitals in the north of England will run out of beds for Covid patients within a week, health chiefs warn, amid growing signs that the second wave of rapid development of the disease will severely disrupt normal NHS care for a second. time.
NHS trusts in the Northeast and Northwest are receiving so many new Covid cases every day that some are already planning to ditch routine surgery again to free up staff and beds, despite a dictate from the entire healthcare service that they should. continue to provide normal care this time.
“Mutual aid” plans are also being drawn up for hospitals to bring Covid cases from outside their area to help ease pressure on those in which all beds equipped to treat these patients have been filled.
Matt Ashton, Liverpool’s director of public health, told The Guardian that the city’s two major acute care hospital trusts were admitting so many new Covid patients every day that they could reach full capacity by the end of next week.
“I don’t want people to panic, but in seven to 10 days our hospitals will be at the level they were at the peak of the pandemic.”
At a meeting chaired by England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty on Thursday, parliamentarians from the North and Midlands were warned that some hospitals could see more Covid patients in intensive care units than during the spring peak in 22 days. , if not more. action was taken.
Ashton said: “If Northwest capacity is likely to be reached in 22 days, we will arrive first, Liverpool will arrive first.”
The number of Covid patients being treated by the city’s Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen Trust and the Aintree University Hospital NHS Trust has soared from 100 to 200 in the last week. The two trusts have around 400 beds between them that are adequate to handle such cases. The fact that hospitalizations are doubling every seven days means that they could reach their limits of 400 very soon, especially since Liverpool now has one of the highest infection rates in England, Ashton added.
“Indeed, it has doubled in a week from about 100 to about 200. That’s very concerning,” Ashton said, adding that with current trends, another doubling would see all 400 beds full by the end of next week. “The beds will fill up quickly now. This is the point at which the NHS will start to struggle to do its normal routine business alongside its Covid business. “
MPs briefed by Whitty and Health Minister Edward Argar believe the government is preparing to impose additional new restrictions in the north of England, aimed at curbing the spread of infections, despite many of the local closures that are already in force they have not succeeded.
Chris Hopson, CEO of NHS Providers, which represents the trusts, agreed that the rapid increase in hospitalizations in the north meant that some hospitals could soon reach their limits.
“Trust leaders in the North West, Yorkshire and the Northeast tell us that they are extremely concerned about the rapidly increasing levels of hospital admissions related to Covid. For some trusts, admission levels are now at their highest level since Covid-19 arrived in the UK, ”he told The Guardian.
“For some hospitals, the number of Covid patients entering means there is a danger that they will reach capacity in as little as a week or two. Then they would have to seek the support of neighboring trusts. “
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, underscored the government’s deep unrest over the situation when he spoke to hundreds of NHS chiefs at a virtual NHS provider conference on Thursday.
“We are in a dangerous moment in the course of this pandemic. I am very concerned about the increase in the number of cases, especially in the North West and North East of England, parts of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. [and] parts of Yorkshire, ”Hancock said.
The number of Covid patients in Northeast and North Cumbria hospitals has increased fivefold in the space of just three weeks, from 60 in mid-September to 300 now. Similarly, since no new Covid patients were admitted to the ICU in mid-September, they now have 50 such cases.
Hospital sources in the Northeast say the speed of these recent increases means that while they can treat up to 1,000 Covid patients, they may be forced to start canceling the planned surgery again in a few days. The move is being seen as a way to free up beds and staff for Covid patients, in a replay of the action all trusts took during March and April.
A hospital chief said: “We are not far from having to postpone elective operations. I suspect we will have to do that in the next week, or even earlier. “Some of those affected could be patients who have already been waiting many months for surgery, as hospitals in England postponed operations such as joint replacements and removal. of waterfalls in the first wave.
Professor Chris Gray, Clinical Leader of the NHS Northeast and North Cumbria Comprehensive Care System, said: “Covid-19 has certainly not gone away and our hospitals are now beginning to feel the impact of the significant increase in cases across our country. local communities. We are well prepared for this and the current numbers are well below what we experienced at wave one.
“The big challenge for the NHS now is how we handle the continuing uncertainties of Covid-19 as we move into the pressures of winter and continue to bring back our elective programs of planned care in the coming months.”
In March, NHS England told hospitals to cancel most normal care, in addition to cancer surgery and emergency operations. As a result, millions of patients were unable to undergo a diagnostic test, undergo screening for diseases such as cancer, and undergo non-urgent surgery, such as hernia repair or joint repair.
However, that policy has produced a huge backlash, with medical groups, health charities and parliamentarians on the Commons health select committee warning that potentially tens of thousands of patients could die from cancer and other diseases because their disease goes undetected. nor is it. NHS England has told all trusts to maintain normal care during the second wave, but hospital bosses privately doubt they can do so.
Greater Manchester is experiencing a much less dramatic increase in cases than Liverpool. The number of Covid patients in intensive care across the region has only risen from 45 to 47 in the past week, although the number of Covid patients receiving treatment in wards has risen more steeply, from 226 to 293.
NHS data shows that, in the week to October 5, 61% of Covid admissions and in-hospital diagnoses reported in England were made in the North West, North East and Yorkshire.
In the week until October 1, although the total proportion of employed hospital beds occupied by Covid patients amounted to only 1.7% nationally, 12% of beds at the Tameside hospital in Manchester were occupied by the disease, as was 11.5% in the South Tees Trust in the northeast. The 10 trusts with the highest proportion of beds occupied with Covid patients were in the North West, North East and Yorkshire.
Additional reporting by Pamela Duncan and Haroon Siddique
