Government scientific advisor says third wave of coronavirus is ‘entirely possible’

A government scientific adviser said today that the coronavirus lockdowns ‘postpone the problem’ rather than solve it, as he warned that it is ‘doubtful’ that there is a vaccine ready for mass deployment in six months.

Professor Mark Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh also said that a third wave of infections next year is “entirely possible”.

Professor Woolhouse, who is part of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modeling Group (SPI-M), suggested that the UK will have to live with the virus until ‘some kind of cavalry’ comes to the rescue of the nation in good shape. of vaccine or rapid tests.

He said that while the people involved in creating a Covid-19 jab believe one may be ready by March, it will likely take longer to be available.

Professor Mark Woolhouse warned today that it is ‘entirely possible’ that there will be a third wave of coronavirus infections, as he also said it was ‘doubtful’ that a vaccine will be ready for mass deployment in six months.

Boris Johnson announced new coronavirus restrictions last week to slow the spread of the disease, as the prime minister said the new offensive could last six months.

Professor Woolhouse told the BBC’s Andrew Marr program that the government’s strategy appeared to be to try to “keep this up” until there is a vaccine.

But he urged to be cautious about the timeline when scientists might be in a position to throw a jab.

“The government’s strategy is to put up with this for another six months, that’s what they tell us, and implicitly the expectation is that after six months something will be different and the obvious thing is that there is a vaccine available,” he added. He said.

“I have to say that most of the people I have spoken to who are involved in vaccine development think that we may have a vaccine in six months, but it is doubtful that we could have implemented it on a massive scale at that time.

“So I’m afraid we find ourselves in a difficult situation for the next few months.”

The ministers did not rule out imposing another national blockade, but Professor Woolhouse said it would simply “postpone the problem.”

When asked if the government had modeled anything other than a national shutdown at the beginning of the pandemic, he said: ‘Basically not and that’s a concern because when we started modeling this way in March, before the first shutdown, it was very evident. From the work that my group and many other groups did, that all that made a closure was postpone the problem.

“It solves an immediate crisis because it reduces transmission quickly, but it doesn’t really solve the problem in the long term. It doesn’t make the virus go away. ‘

Professor Woolhouse suggested that until the ‘chivalry’ arrives, the UK will have to live with the disease.

When asked if there could be a third wave of infections, he said: ‘That is entirely possible. A scenario I mentioned above actually includes this possibility and this is just another demonstration of what I was saying before locking doesn’t solve the problem, it postpones it.

That is why we need some kind of cavalry on the horizon or alternatively if we think that the vaccine is not going to be available in six months or 12 months or two years or whenever we need alternatives.

“The alternatives that have been mentioned so far are things like the Moonshot program on mass testing and there may be others on the horizon as well.”

Announcing his latest crackdown on the coronavirus on Tuesday last week, Johnson said the measures could be in place for six months.

He told MPs in the House of Commons: ‘We will spare no effort in developing vaccines, treatments, and new forms of mass testing.

But, unless we make tangible progress, we should assume that the restrictions I have announced will remain in place for about six months.

“For the moment, this virus is a fact of our lives and I must tell the House and the country that our fight against it will continue.”