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Clashes have been reported in northern Ethiopia after the country’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military response to an “attack” by the ruling party of the restless Tigray region on a camp that housed federal troops.
Analysts and diplomats have been warning for weeks that a clash between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front could plunge Ethiopia into a bitter and bloody civil conflict.
On Wednesday, Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a military camp in the region and attempting to loot military assets.
“Our defense forces … have been ordered to carry out their mission to save the country,” he said. “The end point of the red line has been crossed. Force is being used as the last measure to save the people and the country ”.
Addressing the nation on television, the prime minister announced that “several martyrs” had been killed in the attack in Mekele, the capital of the northern region of Tigray, and the city of Dansha. The government declared a six-month state of emergency in the Tigray region.
The prime minister’s spokesman, Billene Seyoum, told Reuters later that day that military operations had begun in Tigray and that diplomats reported armed clashes but did not give further details.
“This war is the worst possible result of the tensions that have been brewing. Given Tigray’s relatively strong security position, the conflict can be protracted and disastrous, ”said William Davison, International Crisis Group senior analyst for Ethiopia.
“It could put serious pressure on an Ethiopian state that has already been hit by multiple serious political challenges and it could also send shockwaves to the Horn of Africa region and beyond.”
The TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition for decades before Abiy took office in 2018 and announced sweeping political reforms. However, these reforms have allowed long-standing ethnic and other grievances to surface and have caused instability.
Tigray’s population makes up 5% of Ethiopia’s 109 million people, but it is richer and more influential than many other larger regions.
Under Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for ending a war with neighboring Eritrea, Tigray leaders have complained of being unfairly targeted in corruption trials, removed from the highest positions. and blamed for the country’s problems.
One factor in the latest crisis is the postponement of national elections due to the Covid-19 pandemic. National elections were due to take place in August, but election officials ruled in March that all voting would be delayed until the threat of the virus subsides.
When parliamentarians voted to extend the officials’ terms, which would have expired in early October, Tigray’s leaders went ahead with regional elections in September that the Abiy government deemed illegal.
Now, each side sees the other as illegitimate, and federal lawmakers have ruled that the Abiy government should cut off contact with the Tigray leadership and its funding.
The Tigray region is home to a large proportion of federal military personnel and where much of their equipment is located, a legacy of Ethiopia’s brutal 1998-2000 border war with Eritrea, its northern neighbor.
Some analysts estimate that Tigray could muster more than half of the total personnel and mechanized divisions of the military.
Last week, Tigray blocked an Abiy-appointed general from assuming a new post, saying that Abiy no longer had the authority to make such moves.
Tigrayan officials have said in recent days that they would not start a military conflict. However, the risk of war is high.
On Tuesday night, hours before Abiy’s announcement, Wondimu Asamnew, another senior Tigray official, told AFP that the federal government was stockpiling troops on the southern border of Tigray, a claim that could not be independently verified. .
“I think that when it comes to military mobilization, it is not child’s play. It can unleash an all-out war… what they are doing is playing with fire, ”Wondimu said. “One small spark can ignite the entire region. So I think we are on alert and I can assure you that we are capable of defending ourselves. “
Nic Cheeseman, expert on African politics at Brimingham University, said that since much of the country’s military capabilities had been under the control of the TPLF, an open confrontation would not necessarily result in a direct “victory” for Ethiopian forces.
“There is also a real risk that the open conflict will exacerbate ethnic tensions and inspire more secessionist sentiments in other parts of this country. If so, Ethiopia could fall apart. Cheeseman said.
Observers have called for a ceasefire and unconditional discussions in a neutral venue to maintain a truce and address grievances on both sides.
However, the rhetoric in recent weeks has been highly charged and regional dynamics, such as the growing closeness of leaders in Addis Ababa and Eritrea, will need to be considered in any solution, analysts said.
Ahmed Soliman of Chatham House in London said the consequences of a full-blown conflict would be “indescribable” for Ethiopia and East Africa.
“Ethiopia has experienced a difficult transition in recent years, but it remains the diplomatic cornerstone of the region,” he said.
The vast country, the second most populous in Africa, has long been a strategic partner for Washington. US diplomats in Addis Ababa called for “an immediate reduction in the current situation in Tigray and a measured response from both sides.”
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