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Concerns about contacting GPs during the coronavirus outbreak could be driving an increase in missed or delayed diagnoses, the researchers said.
A growing body of research has suggested that patients have avoided seeking medical attention due to the pandemic. The figures have revealed a large increase in the number of people dying at home, while visits to the emergency room have fallen sharply.
Meanwhile, the results of a survey by NHS England, published in April, revealed that 40% of people said they were avoiding contacting their GP due to concerns about overburdening the NHS.
Now, researchers say an analysis of GP records has revealed that diagnoses for conditions, from cardiovascular problems to mental health problems, were up to 50% lower during the spring than expected.
While the study only covers Salford, the team says a similar situation could be occurring elsewhere, particularly in other areas of high deprivation.
“It is not unreasonable to assume that this is also happening across the country,” said Richard Williams, first author of the research from the Center for Patient Safety Translational Research at the National Institute for Health Research in Greater Manchester.
Writing in The Lancet, Williams and her colleagues report how they analyzed records from January 2010 onward for more than 240,000 people in Salford to predict diagnoses of common conditions expected between March 1 and May 31. They then compared these predictions with the actual number of diagnoses recorded during this period.
The results reveal that while 2,147 diagnoses of common mental health problems such as anxiety and depression were expected, only 1,073 diagnoses were recorded.
Reductions in diagnoses of diseases of the circulatory system, such as coronary heart disease and stroke, and type 2 diabetes, were also seen, with cases of the latter about half of those expected.
While the pandemic has triggered a major shift toward predominantly remote appointments, the team says their findings are unlikely to stem from GPs having trouble diagnosing patients over the phone or video, or forgetting to record diagnoses, and they point out that they also found a reduction in drug prescriptions related to these conditions, despite the fact that it is possible to prescribe without a formal diagnosis.
Instead, the team says the reduction is likely due to patients avoiding seeking medical attention.
“There will be people, especially in the early days [of the pandemic], that they were simply afraid and did not go to a medical care center for fear of contracting the coronavirus, “Williams said.
And while remote appointments have been welcomed by some, Williams added that for others it could have brought new challenges in accessing GP care, especially in high deprivation areas. .
While the team saw no clear signs of a reduction in cancer diagnoses during the spring, they say it is likely due to such patients being referred to specialists, who then make the diagnosis, meaning there is a delay before a diagnosis is recorded in GP. records.
The team warns that there could be an increase in demand for medical care, with delayed diagnoses, which means that some patients could have serious illnesses when they approach the NHS.
Williams said it was important to make it “very clear” that health care services are safe and that patients should interact with them as usual, despite local or national coronavirus measures.
“If you have patients who have not been diagnosed or treated, then the effect on their long-term health and mortality will be obviously significant,” he said.
Professor Martin Marshall, president of the Royal College of GPs, said the findings are in line with data from the Royal College that showed a drop in demand for routine GP visits at the height of the lockdown.
However, he said that demand for such appointments returned to near normal levels, adding that although many consultations are conducted remotely, face-to-face appointments are available.
“During a pandemic, other health conditions do not cease to exist, and we have seen in health crises in the past that sometimes there are more deaths from conditions not related to the pandemic than from the virus that causes the pandemic itself,” he said. Marshall.
“As GPs and our teams approach a likely second wave of Covid-19, we do not want this to happen and we urge patients who have concerns about their health to seek medical assistance, especially if they have signs that could indicate serious conditions, such as cancer. “
