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Ministers and scientists are nervous about the extent to which they will be able to alleviate the closure in England by the end of the month, as it emerged that the country needed to halve its daily infection rate of around 10,000 new cases per day.
A new study by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested that one in 400 people had the virus outside of hospitals and care homes in the past two weeks, described by Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s deputy chief medical officer , such as “very low circulation in the community.
However, making the daily infection rate less than 5,000, or even 4,000, is a major factor in making decisions about closed-door lifting measures, such as opening schools and some stores starting June 1. .
Two high-ranking government sources said there was still doubt as to whether enough progress would be made to allow parts of the economy to reopen or allow more social contact through the idea of ”domestic bubbles” in the coming weeks.
Data from ONS, the first national snapshot of Covid-19 rates, also showed that children were more likely to contract coronavirus than adults, and that front-line healthcare workers were much more likely to contract it. General population.
An estimated 148,000 people in England have been infected with the virus in the past two weeks, representing 0.27% of the population. The figures do not include people in hospitals or nursing homes, where rates of Covid-19 infection, and possibly transmission, are likely to be higher.
The Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) discussed expert reports on “bubbles” at a meeting on Thursday, including the Model of two New Zealand households that come together to include close family members, bring caregivers, or support isolated individuals. Evidence from behavioral experts looked at whether it could cause discrimination, how to communicate the policy and how enforceable it would be.
In relation to the closing deadline of June 1, there remain serious concerns about the prevalence of the virus in residences and hospitals, the different levels of infection across the country, and whether the contact screening and testing regime will be fully operational. . “There is still a lot of uncertainty about how far we will be able to do it,” said a senior Whitehall source.
Boris Johnson said in his report on Monday that a reduction in the blockade would be conditional on sufficient progress being made before June 1, but his speech to the nation raised hopes that some aspects of life could return to relative normalcy. , although with physical distance. – In just two weeks.
One of the main deciding factors is whether the daily infection rate falls below 5,000, although some experts believe that below 4,000 would be better. Another is if the “rate R” of reproduction remains substantially below 1.
It is understood that Sage experts seek to publish a range for the R rate more consistently starting next week to increase the transparency of the figure, which is sometimes referenced in press conferences but not published regularly. .
The latest estimate was 0.6 to 0.9, while research from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge suggested it was only 0.4 in London and as low as 0.8 in Yorkshire and North East England.
The ONS study evaluated 10,705 people in more than 5,000 households and suggested that approximately 148,000 people in the entire population would have tested positive on any day between April 27 and May 10, 2020.
Experts suggest that current infection rates remain “somewhat far” from what it would take to lift the block.
The results are likely to fuel concerns about the risk of opening elementary schools on June 1. No evidence of difference in positive proportions was found between age categories 2 to 19, 20 to 49, 50 to 69, and 70 years and older. The numbers that tested positive on this first release were small, 33 in total, so this picture could change and the numbers are expected to follow closely for the next two weeks.
The study revealed much higher infection rates among those working with patients in health care and those in social care roles, with 1.33% positive results.
Previous ONS figures suggested that people working in welfare in England and Wales were twice as likely to die from coronavirus as the general working-age population, but health workers were not more likely to die than other workers. .
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the figures show that “we are still far from reaching a point where we can relax the restrictions a lot.”
According to Hunter, the latest figures would suggest an “approximate estimate” of 10,000 new cases each day. However, a more accurate calculation would take into account the average number of days during which a person would test positive and other factors.
The current pilot phase of the ONS survey will be implemented to cover up to 300,000 people in the next 12 months. From now on, weekly updates will be released, including regional breakdowns.
Azeem Majeed, a primary care professor at Imperial College London, said the data suggests that some previous studies, based on hospital admissions, may have underestimated infection rates in children.
“Children generally have mild symptoms and therefore often do not need medical attention. The next step will be to try to determine if children are as likely as adults to infect other people, “he said.
