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Experts predicted the day the UK will record zero coronavirus deaths.
The Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME), an independent part of the University of Washington, has been analyzing the pandemic in the United States.
Recently, researchers from the United States Institute have applied their method to other countries in the world.
The current death toll in the UK is officially 33,186, but the actual number is believed to be over 40,000, reports Mirror.
Statistical models of how the disease spreads, the current rate of decline, and the effects of social distancing are.
(Image: PA)
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The IHME builds statistical models of how the disease spreads and factors in the current rate of decline in cases due to social distancing and other measures.
But recently it analyzed other countries affected by the pandemic.
The current death toll in the UK is officially 33,186, but the actual figure is believed to be more than 40,000.
The IHME builds statistical models of how the disease spreads and factors in the current rate of decline in cases due to social distancing and other measures.
Then the institute estimates that the first day we could expect zero deaths in the UK will be July 30.
This does not include the possibility of a ‘second wave’ when an outbreak could spread again.
Using data from the death toll as of Sunday (May 10), when 536 people were killed by the virus, as well as data from early March, IHME projects the number of deaths to drop below 400 per day on Wednesday (May 20)
The UK is projected to drop below 100 deaths per day by June 14, while the first day that zero deaths will be in the expected range is July 30.
The IHME projection only runs until August.
On August 4, the last day of the screening, the IHME shows that an estimated 3 people will lose their lives to the disease, but the actual number is likely to range from zero to 12.
The estimated total death toll for August 4 is 43,479, while current government figures show that 32,692 have already died from Covid-19.
According to his projections, the estimated number of infections, not just positive test results, was just under 100,000 on March 23, which IHME believes is the peak of infection. However, the projection recognizes that that number could have been as high as 182,450 or as low as 75,997.
In Italy, IHME predicts that the death toll will reach 35,137, while estimates for France are currently 31,155.
Between weekly model updates and group projections, most European countries have seen an increase in the estimated number of deaths.
An exception was Sweden, with the latest projections pointing to a cumulative Covid-19 death toll of 5,760, below the previous estimate of 10,196.
The group’s analysis of their latest launch says: “At national level, most EEA countries appeared to have rapidly increased testing during or before the increase in estimated infections.
“However, some countries have recently closed the gaps between estimated infections and testing, including the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, indicating the potential need to accelerate testing progress, especially as more countries they move to facilitate the social distancing policies previously implemented. “
Find IHME UK projections, data, methodology and notes here.
For Scottish coronavirus updates, follow our live blog.
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