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Confidential notes seen by Sky News reveal that European Union officials believe a Brexit deal is 95% agreed, but show the degree of anxiety about the potential impact if negotiations break down.
The notes come from a meeting of the highest diplomats in Brussels on Friday morning, when they were briefed on the state of Brexi talks by the Secretary General of the European Commission, Ilze Juhansone.
She was substituting Michel Barnier, the EU’s main negotiator, who went into self-isolation on Thursday.
Ms Juhansone told the meeting that the legal text of a trade agreement was now “finalized” in almost all areas, “covering almost all issues.”
However, he cautioned that problems persist in three well-established areas: fisheries, governance, and competition rules, often referred to as a level playing field.
“On these matters, the UK has made no significant moves,” he told the meeting, adding that “there will be no economic partnership” without an agreement in these areas.
The notes indicate that the UK still insists on annual negotiations on fishing quotes and access to British waters.
However, negotiators have been debating a compromise on fisheries that would see a future review and possible amendment to any Brexit deal.
Other areas of disagreement include the provision of health services by the UK to EU workers, family allowance, financial services, access to freight transport and intellectual property.
Helga Schmid, secretary general of the EU foreign affairs department, was also at the meeting, telling ambassadors that the UK had shown “a lack of enthusiasm for reaching an agreement on foreign, security and defense policy” , but he said he was seeing changes in Approach now.
However, despite these differences, the meeting heard Mr. Barnier’s assessment that an agreement was possible “if the political will exists and the general balance is maintained.”
Ms Juhansone told the meeting that there was “a commitment to find viable solutions” to reach an agreement, and then ratified, in time for the end of the transition period on December 31.
If an agreement is reached, an option to accelerate it would be to have the text written only in English, but French diplomats rejected that proposal at the meeting for “sacrificing legal certainty.”
Another proposal being considered is for the European Parliament to hold an emergency meeting between Christmas Day and New Year’s Eve.
High-level contacts in parliament have told Sky News that they would be prepared to do this, but insist that they should not rush to make such a crucial decision.
A third proposal, and perhaps the most striking, is that an agreement receive a “provisional application”, which would mean that it could enter into force while awaiting ratification.
Diplomats have told me that this is the worst option, because it is very precarious, but that it may also be the only option if time is up.