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What happened on Wednesday night?
Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in person over a three-hour scallop and turbot dinner to try to unblock the deadlock in Brexit trade talks. As expected, both sides agreed to keep talking, but agreed that the gaps between their positions remain wide.
Can we read something in the language of your statements?
Unlike the previous two meetings, there was no joint statement after the leaders’ summit. Some have concluded that this is a reflection of the depth of the division at the table.
A statement from a Downing Street source was the more pessimistic of the two, stating that “very large gaps remain between the two sides and it is not yet clear whether they can be bridged.” Von der Leyen stated more positively that “we got a clear understanding of each other’s positions” but added that “they are still very far apart.”
How does this compare to previous Brexit summits?
The remarks are markedly different from last year’s Wirral meeting between Johnson and Leo Varadkar. The then taoiseach revealed that they had found a “path to a possible Brexit deal,” and days later a deal was sealed. In comparison, the optics of Wednesday night’s result were not good.
Does this mean that all hope for a deal has been dashed?
No. Both sides have said talks will continue through Sunday and Downing Street said the prime minister was determined to try to reach an agreement, saying: “The prime minister does not want to leave any route to a possible agreement untested.
Is Sunday a firm deadline?
Trade talks on Brexit have been marked by at least four formal deadlines set by the EU or the UK. Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, recently said “never say never,” and indicated that talks could continue until December 31, the legal end of the transition period.
Raab told Sky News on Thursday that Sunday will be a “point of finality,” but this could be a tightening of the language to increase pressure on the EU to compromise. Some believe that the language of the dual statements could be part of a choreographed setup for Johnson to declare a victory.
While the mood in Brussels has been pessimistic, according to Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, EU sources have said in recent weeks that Brussels would feel comfortable helping Johnson deliver what can be described as a victory. for the British public, or more notably their tough Brexit advocates, if that’s what it takes to seal a deal.
What if there is a deal?
Any agreement must be approved by the EU member states, the European Parliament and the British Parliament.
Trade deals should have a 21-day scrutiny in parliament, under the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act of 2010. But there’s not enough time for that unless MPs sit every day, including Christmas Day, until New Years Eve.
Instead, the prime minister is expected to speed up legislation for the deal, and as long as he gets Labor Party support in the form of a vote of support or abstention, the law will be enforced.
On the EU side, the European Parliament agreed to sit in a special session on December 28, but many of the 730 MPs may protest because they do not have time to examine a 700-page document to make an informed decision about their voting preference. . .
In this scenario, the European council of leaders of the member states can approve that the agreement can be provisionally implemented on January 1, arguing exceptional circumstances.
What about no-deal planning?
The government has dusted off no-deal contingency plans that had two exits last year: one in preparation for a collapse on March 29, 2019, and another in October when it appeared that Johnson, as the new leader of the Conservative party, was prepared to get out without a deal.
The plans involved putting the army on hold to deal with any problems getting food and medical supplies through the ports, as well as possible civil unrest.
Planes should be allowed to keep flying and trucks to keep moving in the event of no deal after the European Commission set out its contingency plans on Thursday, allowing aviation and road transport to continue as they do now. for six months from 1 January as long as the UK government agrees to maintain a “level playing field” on the rules.
