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England faces a new national lockdown next week as it aims to slow the spread of the coronavirus, new reports suggest.
Here’s why new measures might be introduced and what the restrictions might look like.
What’s going on?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce on Monday a national lockdown for England that could be introduced on Wednesday and last until December 1, according to The Times.
Earlier reports on Friday suggested Level 4 restrictions would be imposed, putting half the country’s population locked up, but meetings between the prime minister, ministers and health experts decided the need for a stricter measure.
A national shutdown has yet to be approved by the Cabinet, but it seems likely that it will be approved.
What has caused this?
It has become clear in recent weeks that Covid-19 is now spreading faster than scientists’ worst predictions. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey found that cases “continued to rise sharply” in the week ending October 23, with more than half a million people infected.
Government scientists now believe that at least 50,000 new Covid-19 cases occur in England on a daily basis, and deaths could reach 500 a day in weeks.
They believe that it is now too late for a two-week national circuit breaker to have sufficient effect, that Level 3 restrictions are not enough, and that a longer national lockdown is required to boost the reproduction number, or R-value, of the virus below one.
The measures are also designed to address the problem of pressure on the nation’s hospitals to deal with a second wave. A recent meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) found that the rate of infections and hospital admissions was now “exceeding reasonable levels of worst-case planning.”
What will the national closure be like?
It has yet to be finalized, but everything is likely closed except for essential shops and educational facilities, which include daycare centers, schools and universities. Tougher measures are also being considered for the worst affected regions.
This means that nonessential shops, pubs, bars, restaurants and entertainment facilities could close as they did in March.
What is the expected end point?
As always, while the world waits for a vaccine, the idea is that the country and the economy return to normal as soon as possible.
Professor Jeremy Farrar, an infectious disease expert and Sage member, tweeted: “The sooner we overcome the disease, reduce transmission, R <1, the sooner we can get our society back to normal and the economy back to normal."
Is England alone in this?
No. The second waves are hitting hard in several countries.
France, Germany and Belgium announced national blocking restrictions this week. President Emmanuel Macron said France was in danger of being “overwhelmed” by a second wave that would be “tougher than the first.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned of a long and harsh winter ahead.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the continent was “immersed in the second wave”. Countries like Poland and the Czech Republic, which were not hit hard the first time around, are now seeing sharp increases in infection rates.
Are national blockades effective?
It looks like it is. The UK, Italy, Spain and France imposed national blockades when hit by the first wave. They were able to ease restrictions in early summer, including reopening trips involving countries on “safe” lists, but this was followed by increases in late summer cases, which have now risen sharply, prompting reimposition. of the closures.
How are the other battles going?
Plans to increase Britain’s testing capacity at least appear to be on track. Johnson promised it would hit 500,000 a day by the end of October, and the latest figures show it has hit 480,000.
Pharmaceutical companies are still working to find a vaccine. While it’s difficult to predict when it will be available, UK Vaccine Task Force Leader Kate Bingham told The Guardian this week that there was a glimmer of hope that one of the top candidates could be approved by Christmas.
