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The UK’s coronavirus alert level should be raised from level 3 to level 4, meaning that transmission is “high or increasing exponentially,” its medical directors said.
It comes after the government’s scientific advisor warned that there could be 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day in mid-October without further action.
The prime minister will make a statement in the Commons on Tuesday.
On Monday, 4,368 more daily cases were reported in the UK, up from 3,899.
Another 11 people have also died within 28 days of a positive test, although these numbers tend to be lower over the weekend and on Mondays due to reporting delays.
In a statement confirming their recommendation, the medical directors for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland said: “After a period of fewer Covid cases and deaths, the number of cases is now increasing rapidly and probably exponentially in significant parts. of the four nations.
“If we are to avoid a significant excess of deaths and exceptional pressure on the NHS and other health services during the fall and winter, everyone must follow social distancing guidelines, wear face covers correctly and wash their hands regularly.”
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the move reflects “the significant change in the current threat posed by the coronavirus.”
“This country now faces a tipping point in its response and it is vital that everyone play their part now to stop the spread of the virus and protect lives,” he said.
It comes as the prime minister prepares to preside over an emergency Cobra meeting on Tuesday morning.
Speaking earlier in Downing Street, along with Chief Medical Adviser Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick Vallance said: “At this time we believe the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.
“Yes, and that’s a big yes, but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days … if that continues, it would end up with something like 50,000 cases in mid-October a day.
“Fifty thousand cases a day would be expected to lead a month later, say in mid-November, to more than 200 deaths a day.
“The challenge, therefore, is to ensure that the doubling time does not remain at seven days.
“That takes speed, it takes action and it takes enough to be able to take that down.”
The move to Level 4 should come as no surprise given the warning from the UK’s two top pandemic advisers this morning.
Infections are on the rise, although some experts wonder if the situation is as dire as Professor Chris Witty and Sir Patrick Vallance pointed out when they raised the possibility of 50,000 cases a day in mid-October.
Cases were always expected to increase at this time of year when respiratory viruses tend to circulate more along with the continued reopening of society.
Certainly, the trajectory of countries like France and Spain is not as marked as the worst scenario proposed.
But it is clear that the government wants to act early this time; One of the big criticisms is that they were slow to introduce the blockade in March, which resulted in more deaths.
Level 4 paves the way for additional restrictions to be introduced with an announcement scheduled for Tuesday.
Officials are well aware that a good balance must be navigated, so a complete lockdown is not anticipated.
Schools will certainly be protected.
But any restriction comes at a cost to society. If you go too far, the risk is that the cure will be worse than the disease.
