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Tight coronavirus restrictions are expected to apply across much of the UK until at least February, experts have said, as they warned of two to three “severe” months.
More than 35,300 positive cases were recorded on Thursday, including a backlog of 11,000 in Wales, with infection rates rising in many parts of the country, while the growing number of Covid hospitals stands at more than 18,000. In the first wave, the peak of hospitalizations in the UK was 21,683.
So far, 138,000 people out of 25 million people in nine priority groups have received their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine.
The temporary relaxation of restrictions on Christmas is expected to fuel the spread of the virus, and scientists say tough measures are likely until at least February. “The UK Covid-19 landscape will only get worse before it gets better and the next two to three months will be tough,” said Dr Michael Head, senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton.
He pointed out that there were believed to be around 60,000 new coronavirus cases, 1,700 hospital admissions and 600 daily deaths, and that Christmas was set to put more pressure on the health service.
“So we can expect heavy restrictions to be in place across all or much of the UK until February at the earliest. More areas are being placed at level 3, which will help turn the tide, but as we saw with the national shutdown this spring, these restrictions may take some time to take effect. “
The heads of the hospitals believe that limits on social contact will have to remain in place for months. Chris Hopson, CEO of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts in England, said: “Nobody wants the tiered restrictions to remain in place for one day longer than absolutely necessary. Fiduciary leaders fully understand their impact on people’s livelihoods and well-being, and the broader economic impact. But until the vaccination program has brought the virus back under control, the best defense we have is to reduce social contact, and it is likely to remain so well into spring.
Professor Rowland Kao, an expert in infectious disease dynamics at the University of Edinburgh, said that for restrictions to be eased, an area’s R-number must drop below 1, meaning the epidemic is slowing. Even during confinement restrictions, R was probably not less than 0.7, he noted.
Dr Michael Tildesley of the University of Warwick, who is part of the Pandemic Influenza Scientific Group on Modeling, said the scale of any expected Christmas effect was unknown, and that some places where people mix, such as schools and universities , they closed.
But he agreed that strict restrictions would likely be needed for some time. “Cases are now on the rise again in most regions, so I would expect more restrictions to be introduced in the new year and for such measures to be in place until at least February, when it is hoped that vaccines can begin rolling out in much larger amounts. . “
While Tildesley said that most of his team’s analysis focused on the situation in England, he added: “I would expect the situation to be similar across the UK.”
Head said that while the next few months may look bleak, the situation could improve after Easter. “Improving the weather, for example, will mean that more people are gathering outdoors, the vaccine program will continue to roll out with probably more vaccine candidates licensed and available by then,” he said.
