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Video report from ITV News science editor Tom Clarke
High-level government scientists have said the rising rates of Covid-19 in south-east England are likely linked to the new variant of the virus, ITV News has understood.
The new strain of the virus, identified by Matt Hancock on Monday, is in all likelihood more substantially infectious than other strains we’ve been dealing with thus far.
It may be an alarming development, but it does not surprise virologists.
Dr Simon Clarke from the University of Reading told ITV News science editor Tom Clarke, “that’s what infectious agents like viruses do – they want to make more copies of themselves and infect people.” .
“The implications of transmissibility is that it will infect more people or that it will be easier to infect more people.”
Downing Street has said that there is growing concern about this new variant of Covid-19.
They are considering new information as it arrives and if it is necessary to enforce stricter restrictions because there is growing evidence that there are high transmission rates of this new strain of the virus.
Number 10 is meeting with scientists and advisers to gather more information, but will not comment on individual meetings.
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ITV News Science Editor Tom Clarke explains what virologists have told him about the new variant
It comes when scientists have said that the current level system does not go far enough to control the spread of coronavirus.
Independent members of Sage said the measures are not effective enough and have varying effects in different regions.
While one member of the group, chaired by former senior scientific adviser Sir David King, said the government was not proactive enough.
Dr Kit Yates, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Bath, said: “I think the levels at the moment are clearly not enough.
“Level 2 is not enough to do anything almost anywhere, level 3 is enough to reduce cases in some regions, but not in others.”
He added that there are differences between different regions in terms of their population density and demographics, which changes the way people mix with each other.
Dr. Yates said: “One rule will not be enough to reduce cases in all regions.
“I think there are other reasons why cases could be increasing. Particularly at this time, I think that putting the vaccine online has meant that people maybe relaxed a bit, and decided to let their guard down because they can see this light at the end of the tunnel.
“I think the government’s message around Christmas, suggesting it’s okay to get together, has meant that a lot of people have relaxed, potentially letting their guard down early.
“We see a lot of people on crowded shopping streets, and this is clearly not going to help.
“I think at the moment the levels are not tight enough, besides having schools open and mingling outdoors with people.
“But that doesn’t mean they won’t be good enough, in a different situation.”
Professor Gabriel Scally, chairman of the epidemiology and public health section of the Royal Society of Medicine, said that the government was a “one-trick pony” and that all it knows is the levels.
He added: “The government has put all its eggs in one basket, and those eggs are breaking and the country is suffering as a result.”
While Professor Susan Michie, a member of Spi-B, a subcommittee of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), and also a member of the Independent Sage, said that often the action taken was “too little too late.”
Speaking at the Independent Sage meeting on Friday, he said: “What the government has done all along is too little, too late: to be on the defensive instead of up front.
“And so on, and the whole level system is waiting until things get really bad, and then hitting a level.
“And with a tiered system, there is a great deal of confusion because it is not part of a planned strategy.
“And because the government is not thinking ahead and looking at what is likely to happen, and acting to prevent things in the future, it is always responding to what is around the corner.”
What can you do in each level from December 2? The new rules in England at a glance:
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Tier 1: Up to six people can meet indoors or outdoors. Pubs and restaurants can open, with the last order at 10pm and closing at 11pm.
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Level 2: Do not mix indoors, except for support bubbles. Up to six people can meet outdoors. Pubs and restaurants may open, with the last orders at 10pm and close at 11pm, but alcohol can only be served with a substantial meal.
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Level 3: Do not mix indoors. People can only meet outdoors in limited places, such as public parks and gardens. Pubs and restaurants must close, with the exception of takeout sales.
At all levels, non-essential shops, gyms, hair salons and personal care services can be opened. People of all levels to work from home wherever they can. Full details on what you can do at each level here
She added: “The adherence to the rules has been fairly stable since the summer, at a very high level, people generally want to do the right things, but I think they are really confused about what to do. be doing.
“I don’t think the tier system as it is is working at the moment.”
However, Professor Christina Pagel, a mathematician and professor of operations research at University College London, said that while she agreed with what the other scientists said, the levels had been working in some places.
She explained: “Something has changed in England. Under looser restrictions on the old Tier 2, London and the South East did not rise as much for about four weeks in October and early November.
“So it’s not like they’ve never worked, and the Northwest was falling into Level 3, so clearly something has changed and I don’t know what it is.
“I don’t know if it’s a combination of behavior, vaccine news, temperature, Christmas shopping, knowing that Christmas is coming, all of that mixed up.
“But something is happening because I am really surprised how badly the new levels that are stricter than the old ones have been given.”
A government spokesperson said: “We stepped up measures at the tiers, following Sage’s advice, and will continue to take decisive action in the areas where the virus is most prevalent. We expect areas in Level 3 to lower R if everyone follows the rules.
“As the latest figures show, we must remain vigilant to keep this virus under control to protect the NHS and save lives.”
