Covid in Scotland: What would a ‘circuit breaker’ lockout look like?

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New lockdown restrictions are likely to be announced “in the near future,” the prime minister said. This may take the form of a “circuit breaker” lockout for a relatively short period. National Clinical Director Jason Leitch said it won’t be a return to “total lockdown,” so what exactly would it look like?

Why does the government think we need a circuit breaker?

New positive cases of Covid-19 began to slowly increase in Scotland during August.

Initially many of the new cases were confined to local clusters, but now the increase is widespread across Scotland and the trend line for new cases is steadily increasing.

Also, the proportion of positive tests has increased and the number of people receiving treatment in hospital for Covid-19 is increasing.

The rate of new deaths after a positive test for Covid-19 has also started to rise and the R number, or the rate of transmission of the virus, could be as high as 1.7.

In short, all the warning signs are flashing red and the Scottish government wants to stem this increase before hospitals start filling up during flu season.

A Scottish-wide ban on homes mixing indoors was introduced on 22 September, but if this doesn’t seem to be working fast enough, ministers will need to apply tougher restrictions.

Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon says a circuit breaker would mean “buy some time to help you get through the winter.”

He also says that it is important to suppress the virus “while we wait for other things to happen,” such as the development of a vaccine.

How long will it last?

The idea behind a circuit breaker is that it is a “short, cutting discharge.”

Basically, it must be long enough to break the chains of transmission, but short enough to minimize the effect on the economy.

Scotland’s National Clinical Director Jason Leitch has talked about two weeks being enough to buy the country another 28 days in the fight against the virus.

Any breaker is also likely to be for a defined period of time, rather than indefinite like the original closing in March.

Would schools close?

Keeping schools open is one of Ms. Sturgeon’s stated priorities.

The prime minister said on Monday that the Scottish government was trying to control the virus in a way that would allow full-time learning in schools to continue.

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When asked in his daily briefing on Monday if there were plans to introduce part-time or blended learning in schools, he said: “I have no proposal to switch children to part-time school, and let me be very clear about it.

“It’s about trying to handle this infection in a way that allows us to keep schools open, in addition to scheduled vacation periods, so we don’t have extended vacations or rescheduled vacations or a switch to blended learning.”

However, Ms Sturgeon noted that the mid-term school holidays provide an opportunity to adopt measures that “try to reduce some of the transmission risks that we face”, although she admitted that not all local authorities share the same week. mid-term.

And the hospitality?

Scotland’s bars and restaurants have already been hit by a 10pm curfew, but could they be closed completely during an autumn shutdown?

Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, thinks some kind of restrictions are likely to apply to hospitality.

• Tourism and hospitality in the fears of the ‘circuit breakers

“We want to reduce the family mix, in other words meet other people on the inside,” Ms Bauld told BBC Radio’s Good Morning Scotland program.

“So let’s think about the fact that we can’t do that in Scotland in terms of going to someone else’s house, that’s already in place. So what else could the government do to reduce that?”

“That would mean, unfortunately, temporarily closing the hospitality venues [and] maybe other places where they have Test and Protect data make things riskier. “

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Could there be a travel ban?

During Scotland’s initial blockade, a five-mile travel ban was imposed for non-essential travel.

It is certainly a possibility, but it would be one of the most extreme measures the Scottish government could introduce during a circuit breaker.

On Monday, Sturgeon said travel within the country and from Scotland to other locations would be “part of a consideration” for additional measures.

Scotland’s BBC political editor Brian Taylor says Sturgeon may be able to combine a Scotland-wide measure with stricter measures, such as a travel ban, for local areas that are most severely affected.

He notes that during Monday’s coronavirus briefing, Sturgeon mentioned the contrast in positive test rates between Glasgow, where they are very high, and Dumfries and Galloway, where they are relatively low.

There is also a precedent in Scotland for a local travel ban.

In Aberdeen, a five-mile restriction for nonessential travel was imposed for 18 days in August as part of a local lockdown that helped public health teams control a local cluster of cases.

What is happening in other places?

Much of Europe is also dealing with a “second wave” of coronavirus cases, and Professor Bauld says it is worth seeing what measures have been introduced.

In France, gatherings are limited to 10 people and wedding receptions, student parties and other gatherings organized in contracted venues are prohibited.

Paris will also close all bars for two weeks starting October 6. Bars, gyms and swimming pools in the city will also be closed for two weeks.

• What are the new rules in France and in Europe?

Spain has introduced a new blockade in Madrid and nine surrounding cities.

Nearly five million people can now only leave their local area to go to work, school or to receive medical care.

And in the Republic of Ireland, all non-essential travel is discouraged in Dublin, where there has been a recent spike in cases.