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Greater Manchester will run out of beds to treat people who became seriously ill from Covid-19, and some of the 12 hospitals in the region are already full, a leaked NHS document revealed.
It showed that last Friday the resurgence of the disease had left hospitals in Salford, Stockport and Bolton at full capacity, without spare beds to help with the growing influx. The picture it paints increases pressure on ministers to reach an agreement with local leaders on the region’s planned move to the upper level of coronavirus restrictions.
He suggested that hospitals in Greater Manchester are rapidly heading towards being overwhelmed by the large numbers of people with Covid who need emergency care to save their lives, in the same way that those in Liverpool have become in recent weeks. By Friday, 211 of the 257 intensive care beds in Greater Manchester (82% of the total supply) were already being used for people with Covid or people who were critically ill due to another illness.
Greater Manchester hospitals admitted 110 new patients with confirmed or suspected Covid in the 24 hours before the spreadsheet was produced and shared with NHS chiefs on Friday, illustrating the intense pressure they are under. . That brought the total number of Covid cases they were treating to 520.
The revelation came as the stalemate between the government and Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, as well as many other local leaders and MPs continued. Ministers have designated Greater Manchester as a Level 3 area, requiring the toughest kind of local lockdown, but Burnham said this can only happen with increased support for businesses forced to close, such as pubs, and those that they run out of income.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, escalated the government’s war of words with Burnham on Sunday by accusing him of risking lives by opting for “press conferences and positions” rather than accepting the new coronavirus rules.
Burnham has written to Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer and other Westminster political leaders urging them to hold a parliamentary vote to decide the level of financial aid for areas under the most stringent Level 3 restrictions.
The revelations came shortly after another document, obtained by the Manchester Evening News, showed that, based on current trends, the region could have more hospital deaths and more occupied intensive care beds in late November than at the peak of the pandemic in early to mid-April.
He warned that several area hospitals, including those in Tameside and Stockport, could double or even triple the number of patients needing intensive care by November 10 than they have beds. Bolton, for example, could have 51 patients, all needing his 18 beds.
Senior physicians expressed alarm at the rapidly worsening situation in Greater Manchester.
“These projections paint a bleak picture, with the possibility, in a worst case scenario, that some intensive care units in the city will run out of beds in a matter of weeks. They also suggest that the number of patient deaths may even exceed those seen during the peak of the pandemic earlier this year, ”said Dr Rob Harwood, chairman of the advisory committee of the British Medical Association.
“The last thing we want to see is a repeat of the number of cases – and the subsequent pressures on hospitals – that we saw in April, but it is worrying that this analysis predicts exactly that.
“The situation in the region is alarming, the number of new infections remains worryingly high, and doctors are incredibly concerned that unless the rate of transmission is urgently halted, we may soon see a further increase in patients. needing intensive care. and, tragically, an increase in deaths ”.
An NHS spokesperson in Greater Manchester said: “We are monitoring the situation with our hospital admissions, general beds and ICU beds very, very closely. It is not unusual for 80-85% of ICU beds to be in use at this time of year and our hospitals work together if there are particular pressures in any area, to ensure the best care for patients in need of a high level of care. support in the ICU. provides, both for Covid and for other reasons. “
The Guardian may also reveal that hospitals in Liverpool, the center of the second wave of the disease, had to send some patients to intensive care units at other Northwest hospitals because theirs could not cope because staff were ill or in isolation due to Covid.
A well-positioned NHS figure in Liverpool said: “There have been a number of ICU patient transfers over this weekend to try to cope with demand. Staff absenteeism levels slightly exceed normal sickness rates. There is very little ‘spare’ ICU capacity in the region. “
Hospitals in Cheshire and other parts of Merseyside are also seeing a large increase in Covid admissions, as the resurgence of the disease makes life difficult for them with winter pressures already looming.
NHS chiefs in Greater Manchester are considering opening the region’s Nightingale hospital in the city center in the coming weeks to cope with the growing influx of patients. However, it is still unclear where the necessary staff will come from, because local hospitals are already busy. The Manchester, Harrogate and Sunderland Nightingales were put on hold last week to reopen soon if necessary in response to the problems Covid has been causing in the north of England.
But Dr. Nick Scriven, the immediate past president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said finding the staff to work on them could present a challenge. “The big question for the Nightingales is how they will be staffed. Given the pressures in all ICU wards, how can you send your staff to other units if the intention is to see level two or three patients there? It is necessary that there is a very clear guide and a reflection on who will be in charge of taking care of the nightingales. “
The most recent official figures showed that 196 patients were admitted to hospitals due to Covid in the Northwest last Friday, up from 180 the previous week. The region now has 1,785 hospitalized patients with the disease, of which 161 are connected to a mechanical ventilator to help them breathe.
A senior doctor in Manchester said the city’s rapid increase in Covid patients and expectations that the increase will continue as winter brings its usual burden of respiratory problems was “terrifying”.
“I fear the next few months. We have Covid-19 numbers on the rise in a context where most places continue to do elective courses [planned operations] and catch up from the first wave. Winter brings a lot of respiratory admissions for flu and other reasons anyway, even without Covid, the rooms fill to the ground, “they said.
Meanwhile, a growing number of hospitals are considering or intending to postpone planned operations to free up beds and staff to deal with the second wave of Covid. They include trusts in Liverpool, Plymouth and in the Northeast.
Covid is also putting great pressure on hospitals in Wales. Dr Ami Jones, an anesthetist and intensive care physician in South Wales, warned in a tweet on Saturday that while Liverpool hospitals “are totally overwhelmed by Covid patients, we are not far from this in Wales.” and that some of those affected were “young patients fit and well [in their] 30, 40 and 50]”.
Dr. Dave Jones, another Welsh anesthetist, tweeted that, unlike the first peak of the pandemic, the NHS was “entering the second wave with carts in the corridors and ambulances outside. [hospitals]”. A third anesthetist, Dr. Tamas Szakmany, used the same platform to warn that hospitals could not provide patients in intensive care with the same standard of care as usual, including those using a ventilator due to Covid, while also They continue to provide normal services, without Covid care, because they have very few personnel.
A spokesperson for NHS England in the North West He said: “Coronavirus cases are increasing and it is obviously a dire situation, so it is vital that everyone do what they can to control the virus.
“Social distancing is our first line of defense, followed by the test and trace program, but if it fails to contain the spread of the infection, the NHS has put in place escalation plans, which are in place, including consultation with the North Nightingale hospitals, including in Manchester, to prepare to admit patients. “
