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Today, the country has returned to a second national lockdown as cases of the new virus continue to rise. But official projections have been quietly revised to no longer suggest that deaths will soon exceed those at the peak of the first wave.
On Saturday, charts released during the Downing Street press conference suggested that the UK would see up to 1,500 deaths per day in early December.
This is much higher than the numbers seen during the first outbreak of the deadly virus in spring.
However, government documents show that the figures were too high and have been “modified after an error was found.”
This amendment comes after MPs voted yesterday to impose the new lockdown restrictions.
COVID data changed after the blockade imposed (Image: Getty)
Boris Johnson imposed a new blockade from today (Image: Getty)
The forecast now predicts about 1,000 deaths per day by December 8, a figure on par with April.
Just days after Sir Patrick Vallance presented a “very bleak picture” in the fight against the virus, the Government Office for Science corrected two of the slides.
These changes reduced the number of deaths and hospital admissions.
The original filing suggests that hospital admissions could rise to as high as 9,000 a day by early December.
READ MORE: Dominic Raab forced to self-isolate amid COVID fears
Millions of companies have been forced to close (Image: Getty)
Now the figure has dropped to 6,000 on the updated slides.
This comes after a separate model showed the worst-case scenario of 4,000 deaths a day in late December.
This terrifying figure was based on outdated data that has also been updated.
Earlier this week, both Sir Patrick and Chris Whitty, the medical director, were questioned at Commons’ science and technology committee and asked if the purpose of the data was “to scare people.”
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Coronavirus cases in the UK mapped (Image: Express)
Sir Patrick said he “regretted” not making it clear that these scenarios were models rather than projections.
He told MPs: “The correct charts to focus on are the six-week medium-term projections.”
Professor Whitty later added that he had “I never used anything beyond six weeks in anything that I have told any minister on this matter. “
Professor Heneghan, director of the Center for Evidence-based Medicine at the University of Oxford, expressed concern that incorrect data would be used “systematically” to drive the country into lockdown.
Above: Original prediction of coronavirus deaths. Bottom: adjusted total (Image: COBR)
He told the Telegraph: “It really worries me that, on matters that are so important, we are finding that the data is absolutely riddled with errors.
“I don’t know if the data is being processed quickly or if what we are seeing is that a bias is being introduced, but what we are seeing seems systematic.
“All the errors are consistently in one direction, so you have to ask yourself if you are doing it on purpose to adapt to the policies, like the blockade, that they want to impose.”
He added: “We are in an era where public compliance is essential to public health, and in due course, we will need people to get vaccinated.”
The blocking measures go into effect today (Image: Getty)
“That requires people to trust the government.”
The Statistical Regulation Office criticized the government for its lack of transparency about the publication of the data.
In a damning statement, he said: “The use of data has not been consistently supported by transparent information provided in a timely manner.
“As a result, there is the potential to confuse the public and undermine confidence in the statistics.”
A government spokesman said: “The main consensus projection remains unchanged.
“The data still clearly shows, and the consensus remains, that without intervention we are likely to break the first wave of hospital admissions and deaths in a matter of weeks.”
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