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Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the UK is “now seeing a second wave” of Covid-19.
The expansion of ‘local’ restrictions means that more than 13 million people (one fifth of the UK population) have additional restrictions on their lives.
And the increase in cases is not just limited to hotspots, but is widespread across the UK. Local restrictions do not suppress a virus that spreads outside of those areas.
In this context, the government is deciding what to do next. One idea is a “circuit breaker” – a short, sharp period of tighter restrictions so that everyone can slow the spread of the coronavirus.
So why might a circuit breaker be necessary and what could it accomplish?
Let’s do some rough math.
Take 6,000 cases a day, double them every week, as suggested by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), and by mid-October you have over 100,000 infections a day, as we did at the peak.
That is not a sophisticated disease model, it is not set in stone, and measures such as the “rule of six” should slow the spread.
But that simple sum gives an idea of how quickly a small problem can turn into a huge one.
A circuit break is about trying to change that trajectory.
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“The evidence is that hospitalizations are increasing, it’s a concern, and the concern is what happens if we don’t do something,” Dr. Mike Tildesley from the University of Warwick told me.
It’s part of the government’s group of disease modeling scientists, called SPI-M, that has been discussing the switches this week.
Dr Tildesley added: “To be perfectly frank, none of us want this, but we are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
“However, with a short-term managed lockdown, you buy yourself some time.”
A series of stricter restrictions should result in a drop in cases rather than an increase, but the extent of the drop is uncertain and will depend on the severity of the restrictions.
It is suggested that schools and workplaces will remain open, but the hospitality sector (think bars and restaurants) would suffer. This is not Lockdown 2.0.
“The overall goal is that you don’t want intensive care units to fill up again, but you also have more options at lower levels of the virus,” said Dr Adam Kucharski, another SPI-M member and researcher at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
When virus levels are low, it is easier to detect outbreaks and use highly specific measures, which are less disruptive than national ones, to slow the spread of Covid-19.
Dr Kucharski told the BBC: “As cases and hospitalizations increase, there is less information about what the outbreak is doing as Test and Trace cannot detect everything, it is not known where the outbreak is.
“That’s the difference, the options decrease substantially as the cases increase.”
Circuit breakers have been used in other countries. The temporary lockdown in New Zealand can be seen as a circuit breaker that gave contact trackers time to control their outbreak.
In the UK, a break could buy time to improve the government’s troubled Test and Trace program, which is already struggling with current levels of coronavirus.
But the problem is that once the circuit break is over, the cases would start to increase again.
“You can find yourself in a short-term lockdown cycle until you have an exit strategy like a vaccine or herd immunity,” says Dr. Tildesley.
Remember it’s only September.
Spring, when the coronavirus should be easier to contain and we may have a vaccine, is still a long way off.
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