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The latest data adds to mounting evidence that the pandemic is slowing down in the UK.
But it is too early to say that the closures in Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland have been successful.
UK medical directors have lowered the R-number by a small amount, suggesting that the growth of the outbreak is slowing.
United Kingdom registers another 27,301 cases of coronavirus and 376 deaths
The R number drops slightly to a maximum of 1.2
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This is not the same as an actual decrease. If R is 1, then each person with the virus infects another person.
If 10,000 people have it, that means they will infect 10,000 more, with the inevitable impact in deaths and hospitalizations.
According to the Office for National Statistics survey, one of the most reliable pictures of the state of the epidemic, 654,000 people in England had the virus in the week leading up to November 6.
Unless the R number falls below 1, that number will not start to fall.
After his influential REACT study showed similar flattening, a scientist at Imperial College London compared it to being on a mountain.
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If the slope becomes less steep the climb could be easier, but you are still very high and that is the crucial fact.
That picture is borne out in the data on deaths and hospital admissions, which show no signs of slowing down and may not do so for several weeks.
But it is possible to find more optimistic valuations. The team behind the COVID-19 The Symptom Study app now estimates R to be less than 1 in all regions of the UK.
But even if this is correct, and it may well be that the app tends to be ahead of the official figures, the stark fact of a high prevalence is inescapable.
For that reason, I am sure that the government and its scientific advisers are already concerned about the end of the blockade.
Given that the models suggest that the R number is unlikely to fall below 0.6 during this lockdown, it seems unlikely that the prevalence will have fallen to a very low level by December 2.
The new documents confirm SAGE’s vision of the existing tier system: If reintroduced, they say, cases will simply revert to the tier they were at at the start of the lockdown.
And then there is Christmas.
Movement data from all over England shows very clearly that people started moving much more before the close.
In London, according to travel app Citymapper, more people took trips than at any time since March 16.
What will people do once this lockdown ends? With government messages framing Christmas as a reward for good behavior, it seems unlikely that people will stay home alone after so long away from their families.
We could be seeing a new wave of infections in no time.
Unless the vaccine arrives soon, or we discover a new strategy to control the virus, this lockdown may prove less effective than we expected, even if the first signs are that it is having an impact.
