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One of the largest and most authoritative coronavirus surveys has found that infections are declining in England, confirming that the lockdown is working to suppress the virus.
The REACT study from Imperial College London found that infections had decreased by more than two-thirds since it was last reported in mid-January.
Last time, REACT found that 1 in 63 people currently had the virus. This time, he estimates that 1 in 196 people is infected.
This means that infections are now at a similar level to what they were when REACT reported in September.
Researchers estimate that England’s national R-number is between 0.69 and 0.76, which means that the outbreak is decreasing across the country.
Professor Paul Elliott, program director at Imperial, called the results “encouraging” and said they showed that “lockdown measures are effectively reducing infections.”
He added: “It is reassuring that the reduction in the number of infections has occurred at all ages and in most regions of the country.”
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This uniform decline across age groups means that there is no evidence that the vaccination program is behind the decline in infections. If that were the case, the researchers said, they would expect to see a bigger drop in people 65 and older.
REACT screened more than 85,000 volunteers between February 4 and 13 to examine infection levels in the general population. Their large size makes their findings significant, as does the fact that no drop in infections was previously reported within 10 days of closure.
However, the researchers cautioned that although the trend was good, the level of cases was still too high for comfort, as many patients continued to be admitted to the hospital.
They warned that any route outside the blockade should be “closely monitored.” The prime minister is due to set his roadmap to release the restrictions on February 22.
Experts welcomed the news, but said the REACT study raised questions with Boris Johnson before its announcement, because it indicated possible regional and ethnic inequalities in the drop in cases.
The researchers found that “large family size, living in a disadvantaged neighborhood, and Asian ethnicity were associated with higher prevalence.”
Dr Tom Wingfield, Senior Clinical Professor and Honorary Consultant Physician at Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, said: “This re-exposes unacceptable socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities within our society.
“In retrospect, the easing of lockdown restrictions after the first COVID-19 Wave in 2020 was too early and took place at a time when the NHS Test and Trace system had limited coverage and was not working optimally.
“We need to learn from this as we lift the current lockdown measures and not make the same mistakes again.”
Although the number of infections declined everywhere, the biggest drop was in the south, with a very dramatic drop in London. The areas with the highest prevalence are now the Northwest and Northeast. In the northeast, the REACT team estimates that R is likely above 1.
This repeats the pattern that emerged after the first lockdown, although experts noted that the other large infection survey, which is conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), did not find a similar regional trend.
“These regional differences are something to be aware of as more data from REACT and the ONS survey emerge,” said Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at the Open University.
“We are very lucky here to have these two surveys, which provide relatively unbiased estimates of infections in England, so that we can see how they compare.
Most of the world’s countries don’t even have such a survey. “
