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People who receive a COVID-19 vaccine can have immunity for 90 days, government scientific advisers have said.
In a paper considered by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which also discussed the much-discussed concept of immunity certificates, experts say the duration of immunity against “natural infection or vaccination” is currently unknown.
However, they say the “lowered immunity” is believed to partly cause other coronaviruses to be reinfected after a year or two.
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Meanwhile, seasonal coronaviruses typically re-infect people 12 months later and sometimes as soon as six months later, scientists say.
“We conservatively estimate that a protective immune response after SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination can last 90 days (moderate confidence),” they say.
“Based on this information, we concluded that: Within a month of natural infection, a high proportion of people will develop immunity that protects against disease caused by reinfection (high confidence).
“This protection is likely to persist for at least three months (moderate confidence).”
But they add: “Some people will not develop immunity after a natural infection or a vaccine (high confidence).
“The proportion is unknown, but it is likely to be small (moderate confidence).”
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The document, which was released on Friday, was produced by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (NERVTAG) and reviewed by SAGE on November 19.
The low number of confirmed cases of people reinfected with COVID-19 suggests that “natural immunity is maintained in most cases,” says NERVTAG.
According to the document, coronavirus antibodies can be detected in at least 90% of people infected with the virus, while new evidence suggests that the figure “is close to 100%.”
Antibodies can be measured in about a week after symptoms develop, peaking after about a month before declining to a “fairly stable level showing little evidence of a further decline in five to six months,” it adds. The document.
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The findings were revealed in a document that considered the concept of immunity certificates.
This is the proposal to give people who have recovered from the coronavirus, or have been vaccinated, “an exemption from current non-pharmaceutical interventions designed to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2,” according to the document.
NERVTAG said that “a significant number of people who have been infected … may have some ‘immunity’ to protect them during subsequent exposure.”
Meanwhile, coronavirus vaccine trials “suggest that a high degree of immunity to COVID-19 disease can be gained, at least in the short term,” he added.
The experts conclude: “Some form of COVID-19 immunity certification is likely possible, but more data and considerations are needed before a recommendation can be made.”
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The new vaccine minister, Nadhim Zahawi, revealed this week that the government was considering issuing “immunity passports” and suggested that bars and cinemas “will probably use that system as well.”
But cabinet minister Michael Gove then dismissed the suggestion., insisting that there was no plan to introduce any form of special identification for those who receive the jab.
“I’m certainly not planning to introduce vaccine passports, and I don’t know anyone else in the government who is,” he told Sky News.
Matt Hancock revealed in April that the government was considering issue certificates of immunity to those who have recovered from the coronavirus.
At the time, the health secretary said the proposal could eventually help people “return, as far as possible, to normal life,” but cautioned that more research is still needed.
